Impacts of subsidy efficiency on bus electrification: A participatory system dynamic modeling

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.031

Alyson L.P. Rodrigues , Liana Cipcigan , Dimitris Potoglou , Dominic Dattero , Peter Wells , Sônia Regina da Cal Seixas

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study explores the effectiveness of government subsidies in promoting the adoption of Battery Electric Buses (BEBs) and mitigating CO₂ emissions to illustrate how political and contextual factors interact in this implementation. Case studies from Wales and Brazil were chosen to demonstrate results in different national contexts and identify differences and similarities in electrification initiatives. The system dynamics (SD) models are established through group model building (GMB) involving interdisciplinary workshops conducted with local researchers from both countries. Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) were employed to describe the system in terms of causal connections and mutual influences. The simulated results reveals that the static subsidy efficiency in 2030 for Brazil and Wales correspond to 43 % and 64 %, respectively. The emissions avoided per BEBs unit corresponds to approximately 129.848 tons CO₂/year and 109.310 tones CO₂/year, respectively. The originality of this research results from the development of flexible models as a decision tool for the electrification of public transport. Therefore, the findings are useful to both researchers and policymakers involved in crafting action plans of bus transit.

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.