Predicting aquaculture potential of an essential shrimp via species distribution models in China under climate change

IF 3.2 2区农林科学 Q1 FISHERIES

Aquaculture Reports Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI:10.1016/j.aqrep.2025.102783

Jie Wei , Yakun Wang , Kunhao Hong , Qiaoyan Zhou , Xinping Zhu , Caihong Liu , Lingyun Yu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Aquatic products are a crucial component of global food systems, and the impacts of climate change on aquaculture are becoming increasingly significant. Thus, it is essential to rigorously evaluate the sustainability of aquatic food production in the face of climate change. This study investigates the potential effects of climate change on the aquaculture of the freshwater shrimp Macrobrachium rosenbergii in China, using advanced species distribution models (SDMs). By compiling a comprehensive dataset of aquaculture sites across China, we developed a robust set of SDMs to predict the suitability of aquaculture regions under both current and future climate scenarios. Our models demonstrated high predictive accuracy, revealing that the distribution of suitable aquaculture areas for M. rosenbergii is primarily determined by extreme temperature variations during the warmest and coldest months. Under present climate conditions, these areas are concentrated in eastern and southern China. However, projected climate changes could significantly reduce suitable regions, with losses ranging from approximately 6.00–29.11 %. These results highlight the critical need to consider the long-term effects of climate change when developing strategic plans for aquaculture management and production in China.

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来源期刊

Aquaculture Reports Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Animal Science and Zoology

CiteScore

5.90

自引率

8.10%

发文量

469

审稿时长

77 days

期刊介绍： Aquaculture Reports will publish original research papers and reviews documenting outstanding science with a regional context and focus, answering the need for high quality information on novel species, systems and regions in emerging areas of aquaculture research and development, such as integrated multi-trophic aquaculture, urban aquaculture, ornamental, unfed aquaculture, offshore aquaculture and others. Papers having industry research as priority and encompassing product development research or current industry practice are encouraged.