Trends, differences, and future projections of lung cancer attributable to secondhand smoke across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2036.

IF 2.2 4区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Tobacco Induced Diseases Pub Date : 2025-03-28 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.18332/tid/202228

Yulong Yu, Aifeina Aili, Bili Wu, Weiheng Zhao, Mu Yang, Xianglin Yuan

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Introduction: Secondhand smoke (SHS) has long been identified as a significant risk factor for lung cancer, yet the precise magnitude of its contribution to the global lung cancer burden remains unclear. Our study aims to elucidate the harms associated with lung cancer caused by secondhand smoke while emphasizing the importance of avoiding SHS.

Methods: The annual deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 for this secondary dataset analysis. Trends in mortality and DALYs were evaluated, along with correlations with the sociodemographic index (SDI). Projections from 2021 to 2036 utilized a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results: In 1990, SHS-related lung cancer was responsible for approximately 0.058 million deaths and 1.599 million DALYs, globally. By 2021, these numbers had increased to approximately 0.098 million deaths and 2.356 million DALYs worldwide. Between 1990 and 2021, SHS-related lung cumulatively caused 2.428 million deaths and 62.785 million DALYs. From 1990 to 2021, deaths and DALYs increased significantly, while age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) decreased. Specifically, ASMR decreased from 1.45 to 1.14, and ASDR dropped from 38.40 to 26.93. The high-middle SDI region bore the largest burden, accounting for nearly 40% of global deaths and DALYs. East Asia held the highest burden of lung cancer attributable to secondhand smoke in 2021, while Oceania had the lowest burden. Projections suggest that male ASMR will decline to 1.18 by 2036, while female ASMR is expected to rise to 0.91 by 2029 before decreasing to 0.89 by 2036.

Conclusions: The considerable burden of lung cancer attributable to secondhand smoke underscores the urgent need for targeted public health interventions, particularly in high-risk demographics and regions. To mitigate disparities and enhance global health outcomes, it is crucial to prioritize the avoidance of SHS and the establishment of smoke-free environments.

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1990年至2036年，204个国家和地区二手烟导致肺癌的趋势、差异和未来预测。

长期以来，二手烟（SHS）一直被认为是肺癌的一个重要危险因素，但其对全球肺癌负担的确切影响程度仍不清楚。我们的研究旨在阐明二手烟对肺癌的危害，同时强调避免二手烟的重要性。方法：从2021年全球疾病负担研究（GBD）中获得年度死亡和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）数据，用于二级数据集分析。评估死亡率和DALYs的趋势，以及与社会人口指数（SDI）的相关性。2021年至2036年的预测使用了贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型。结果：1990年，全球与shs相关的肺癌造成约0.058万例死亡和159.9万DALYs。到2021年，这些数字已增加到全世界约98万例死亡和235.6万例伤残调整生命年。1990年至2021年，与shs相关的肺部累计造成242.8万人死亡，6278.5万DALYs。从1990年到2021年，死亡人数和伤残调整生命年显著增加，而年龄标准化死亡率和年龄标准化伤残调整生命年下降。具体而言，ASMR从1.45下降到1.14，ASDR从38.40下降到26.93。SDI中高区域负担最重，占全球死亡人数和伤残调整生命年的近40%。2021年，东亚因二手烟导致的肺癌负担最高，而大洋洲的负担最低。预测显示，到2036年，男性的ASMR将降至1.18，而女性的ASMR预计将在2029年升至0.91，然后在2036年降至0.89。结论：由于二手烟导致的肺癌负担相当大，因此迫切需要采取有针对性的公共卫生干预措施，特别是在高危人群和地区。为了缩小差距并加强全球健康成果，至关重要的是优先考虑避免二手烟和建立无烟环境。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Tobacco Induced Diseases SUBSTANCE ABUSE-PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

5.40%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： Tobacco Induced Diseases encompasses all aspects of research related to the prevention and control of tobacco use at a global level. Preventing diseases attributable to tobacco is only one aspect of the journal, whose overall scope is to provide a forum for the publication of research articles that can contribute to reducing the burden of tobacco induced diseases globally. To address this epidemic we believe that there must be an avenue for the publication of research/policy activities on tobacco control initiatives that may be very important at a regional and national level. This approach provides a very important "hands on" service to the tobacco control community at a global scale - as common problems have common solutions. Hence, we see ourselves as "connectors" within this global community. The journal hence encourages the submission of articles from all medical, biological and psychosocial disciplines, ranging from medical and dental clinicians, through health professionals to basic biomedical and clinical scientists.