{"title":"Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046.","authors":"Kai Qi, Honghui Cheng, Yiwei Jiang, Yichun Zheng","doi":"10.18332/tid/202237","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Based on the results extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, the objective of this research is to examine the spatiotemporal trends of bladder cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2021, and to make projections up to the year 2046.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study conducted a secondary dataset analysis of smoking-attributable bladder cancer data extracted from GBD 2021. Bladder cancer was classified using the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) in GBD, and smoking exposure was defined as both current and past use of smoked tobacco products. By employing a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was determined to examine trends over time.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From 1990 to 2021, the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to smoking-attributable bladder cancer increased significantly. The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased, with an AAPC of -1.54 (95% CI: -1.62 - -1.46). The age-standardized DALY rate (ASDLR) also showed a decline, with an AAPC of -1.68 (95% CI: -1.81 - -1.56). The regions that experienced the most significant age-standardized rate (ASR) burden were Central Europe and Western Europe. Regions with high-medium sociodemographic index (SDI) values had the highest number of deaths and DALYs, as well as the highest ASR for both indicators. The heaviest global disease burden is concentrated among males and individuals aged ≥70 years. Smoking-attributable bladder cancer deaths are projected to rise over the next 25 years, reaching 90021.45 by 2046.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Despite a decrease in the ASRs of smoking-attributable bladder cancer, the absolute burden has increased and is expected to continue growing. Therefore, continuous and targeted tobacco control measures and medical strategies are needed, especially for developed regions, the elderly, and male populations. And due to the unique mechanisms by which tobacco causes disease, the youth and female populations should not be neglected.</p>","PeriodicalId":23202,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Induced Diseases","volume":"23 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11951971/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Tobacco Induced Diseases","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/202237","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Introduction: Based on the results extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, the objective of this research is to examine the spatiotemporal trends of bladder cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2021, and to make projections up to the year 2046.
Methods: This study conducted a secondary dataset analysis of smoking-attributable bladder cancer data extracted from GBD 2021. Bladder cancer was classified using the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) in GBD, and smoking exposure was defined as both current and past use of smoked tobacco products. By employing a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was determined to examine trends over time.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to smoking-attributable bladder cancer increased significantly. The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased, with an AAPC of -1.54 (95% CI: -1.62 - -1.46). The age-standardized DALY rate (ASDLR) also showed a decline, with an AAPC of -1.68 (95% CI: -1.81 - -1.56). The regions that experienced the most significant age-standardized rate (ASR) burden were Central Europe and Western Europe. Regions with high-medium sociodemographic index (SDI) values had the highest number of deaths and DALYs, as well as the highest ASR for both indicators. The heaviest global disease burden is concentrated among males and individuals aged ≥70 years. Smoking-attributable bladder cancer deaths are projected to rise over the next 25 years, reaching 90021.45 by 2046.
Conclusions: Despite a decrease in the ASRs of smoking-attributable bladder cancer, the absolute burden has increased and is expected to continue growing. Therefore, continuous and targeted tobacco control measures and medical strategies are needed, especially for developed regions, the elderly, and male populations. And due to the unique mechanisms by which tobacco causes disease, the youth and female populations should not be neglected.
期刊介绍:
Tobacco Induced Diseases encompasses all aspects of research related to the prevention and control of tobacco use at a global level. Preventing diseases attributable to tobacco is only one aspect of the journal, whose overall scope is to provide a forum for the publication of research articles that can contribute to reducing the burden of tobacco induced diseases globally. To address this epidemic we believe that there must be an avenue for the publication of research/policy activities on tobacco control initiatives that may be very important at a regional and national level. This approach provides a very important "hands on" service to the tobacco control community at a global scale - as common problems have common solutions. Hence, we see ourselves as "connectors" within this global community.
The journal hence encourages the submission of articles from all medical, biological and psychosocial disciplines, ranging from medical and dental clinicians, through health professionals to basic biomedical and clinical scientists.