Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046.

IF 2.2 4区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Tobacco Induced Diseases Pub Date : 2025-03-28 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.18332/tid/202237

Kai Qi, Honghui Cheng, Yiwei Jiang, Yichun Zheng

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Introduction: Based on the results extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, the objective of this research is to examine the spatiotemporal trends of bladder cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2021, and to make projections up to the year 2046.

Methods: This study conducted a secondary dataset analysis of smoking-attributable bladder cancer data extracted from GBD 2021. Bladder cancer was classified using the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) in GBD, and smoking exposure was defined as both current and past use of smoked tobacco products. By employing a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was determined to examine trends over time.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to smoking-attributable bladder cancer increased significantly. The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased, with an AAPC of -1.54 (95% CI: -1.62 - -1.46). The age-standardized DALY rate (ASDLR) also showed a decline, with an AAPC of -1.68 (95% CI: -1.81 - -1.56). The regions that experienced the most significant age-standardized rate (ASR) burden were Central Europe and Western Europe. Regions with high-medium sociodemographic index (SDI) values had the highest number of deaths and DALYs, as well as the highest ASR for both indicators. The heaviest global disease burden is concentrated among males and individuals aged ≥70 years. Smoking-attributable bladder cancer deaths are projected to rise over the next 25 years, reaching 90021.45 by 2046.

Conclusions: Despite a decrease in the ASRs of smoking-attributable bladder cancer, the absolute burden has increased and is expected to continue growing. Therefore, continuous and targeted tobacco control measures and medical strategies are needed, especially for developed regions, the elderly, and male populations. And due to the unique mechanisms by which tobacco causes disease, the youth and female populations should not be neglected.

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1990年至2021年吸烟对全球膀胱癌负担的影响及到2046年的预测。

前言：基于全球疾病负担（GBD） 2021的结果，本研究的目的是研究1990年至2021年吸烟导致膀胱癌的时空趋势，并预测到2046年。方法：本研究对GBD 2021中提取的吸烟导致的膀胱癌数据进行了二次数据集分析。根据GBD的国际疾病分类第十版（ICD-10）对膀胱癌进行分类，吸烟暴露定义为当前和过去使用吸烟烟草制品。通过采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型，确定了平均年百分比变化（AAPC），以检查随时间的趋势。结果：从1990年到2021年，吸烟导致的膀胱癌死亡人数和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）显著增加。年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）下降，AAPC为-1.54 （95% CI: -1.62 - -1.46）。年龄标准化DALY率（ASDLR）也出现下降，AAPC为-1.68 （95% CI: -1.81 - -1.56）。年龄标准化率（ASR）负担最严重的地区是中欧和西欧。具有中高社会人口指数（SDI）值的地区，死亡人数和DALYs最高，两项指标的ASR也最高。全球最重的疾病负担集中在男性和年龄≥70岁的个体中。由于吸烟导致的膀胱癌死亡预计将在未来25年上升，到2046年将达到90021.45例。结论：尽管吸烟引起的膀胱癌的ASRs有所下降，但绝对负担有所增加，预计将继续增长。因此，需要持续和有针对性的控烟措施和医疗策略，特别是针对发达地区、老年人和男性人群。由于烟草引起疾病的独特机制，不应忽视青年和女性人群。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Tobacco Induced Diseases SUBSTANCE ABUSE-PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

5.40%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： Tobacco Induced Diseases encompasses all aspects of research related to the prevention and control of tobacco use at a global level. Preventing diseases attributable to tobacco is only one aspect of the journal, whose overall scope is to provide a forum for the publication of research articles that can contribute to reducing the burden of tobacco induced diseases globally. To address this epidemic we believe that there must be an avenue for the publication of research/policy activities on tobacco control initiatives that may be very important at a regional and national level. This approach provides a very important "hands on" service to the tobacco control community at a global scale - as common problems have common solutions. Hence, we see ourselves as "connectors" within this global community. The journal hence encourages the submission of articles from all medical, biological and psychosocial disciplines, ranging from medical and dental clinicians, through health professionals to basic biomedical and clinical scientists.