Trends in Stomach Cancer Burden in China: A Joinpoint and APC Analysis Based on GBD 2021.

IF 3.7 3区医学 Q2 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI:10.1111/jgh.16956

Xiangying Xie, Juan Su, Wei Wang, Huiling Wei, Qian Zhou, Ying Su, Lili Zhang

{"title":"Trends in Stomach Cancer Burden in China: A Joinpoint and APC Analysis Based on GBD 2021.","authors":"Xiangying Xie, Juan Su, Wei Wang, Huiling Wei, Qian Zhou, Ying Su, Lili Zhang","doi":"10.1111/jgh.16956","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Background and aim: To study the corresponding strategies to control stomach cancer, a comprehensive assessment of the disease burden is required. Herein, we present long-term trends in the burden of stomach cancer in China over the past three decades, as well as its epidemiological features.Methods: We characterized the burden of stomach cancer in China using the GBD 2021 methods and results, based on prevalence, incidence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated using the DisMod-MR 2-1. We also used joinpoint and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis methods to interpret the epidemiological characteristics of stomach cancer, project the disease burden of stomach cancer in China over the next decade, and compare these trends with global prevalence patterns.Results: The age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) in both sexes changed from 48.03 (40.21, 56.69) to 29.05 (22.42, 36.2) and from 46.05 (38.88, 54.43) to 21.51 (16.66, 26.61) per 100 000 people in China from 1990 to 2021. The age-standardized DALY rate in China decreased from 1181.61 (978.38, 1390.89) per 100 000 people in 1990 to 501.26 (387.29, 627.98) per 100 000 people in 2021. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates for stomach cancer in China were -1.61 (95% CI: -1.73, -1.48), -0.50 (95% CI: -0.67, -0.32), and -2.44 (95% CI: -2.62, -2.26). The effects of age, period, and cohort on mortality rates differed.Conclusions: In the next decade, China's ASIR and ASMR for stomach cancer will continue to decline. However, despite the decrease in incidence, the overall burden of stomach cancer in China will remain significantly higher than the global average. The burden of stomach cancer in China will be a major public health challenge, given the country's large population base and aging population.","PeriodicalId":15877,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jgh.16956","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background and aim: To study the corresponding strategies to control stomach cancer, a comprehensive assessment of the disease burden is required. Herein, we present long-term trends in the burden of stomach cancer in China over the past three decades, as well as its epidemiological features.

Methods: We characterized the burden of stomach cancer in China using the GBD 2021 methods and results, based on prevalence, incidence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated using the DisMod-MR 2-1. We also used joinpoint and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis methods to interpret the epidemiological characteristics of stomach cancer, project the disease burden of stomach cancer in China over the next decade, and compare these trends with global prevalence patterns.

Results: The age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) in both sexes changed from 48.03 (40.21, 56.69) to 29.05 (22.42, 36.2) and from 46.05 (38.88, 54.43) to 21.51 (16.66, 26.61) per 100 000 people in China from 1990 to 2021. The age-standardized DALY rate in China decreased from 1181.61 (978.38, 1390.89) per 100 000 people in 1990 to 501.26 (387.29, 627.98) per 100 000 people in 2021. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates for stomach cancer in China were -1.61 (95% CI: -1.73, -1.48), -0.50 (95% CI: -0.67, -0.32), and -2.44 (95% CI: -2.62, -2.26). The effects of age, period, and cohort on mortality rates differed.

Conclusions: In the next decade, China's ASIR and ASMR for stomach cancer will continue to decline. However, despite the decrease in incidence, the overall burden of stomach cancer in China will remain significantly higher than the global average. The burden of stomach cancer in China will be a major public health challenge, given the country's large population base and aging population.

查看原文本刊更多论文

中国胃癌负担趋势：基于GBD 2021的Joinpoint和APC分析

背景与目的：为了研究胃癌的防治策略，需要对疾病负担进行综合评估。在此，我们提出了过去三十年中国胃癌负担的长期趋势，以及其流行病学特征。方法：我们使用GBD 2021方法和结果，根据使用DisMod-MR 2-1估计的患病率、发病率、死亡率、生命损失年数（YLLs）、残疾生活年数（YLDs）和残疾调整生命年（DALYs），对中国的胃癌负担进行了表征。我们还使用联合点和年龄-时期-队列（APC）分析方法来解释胃癌的流行病学特征，预测未来十年中国胃癌的疾病负担，并将这些趋势与全球流行模式进行比较。结果：1990 - 2021年，中国男女年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和死亡率（ASMR）分别为每10万人48.03(40.21、56.69)~ 29.05（22.42、36.2）和46.05(38.88、54.43)~ 21.51（16.66、26.61）。中国年龄标准化DALY比率从1990年的1181.61(978.38,1390.89)/ 10万人下降到2021年的501.26(387.29,627.98)/ 10万人。中国胃癌年龄标准化发病率、患病率和死亡率的年平均百分比变化（AAPC）分别为-1.61 （95% CI: -1.73, -1.48）、-0.50 （95% CI: -0.67, -0.32）和-2.44 （95% CI: -2.62, -2.26）。年龄、时期和队列对死亡率的影响不同。结论：未来十年，中国胃癌的ASIR和ASMR将继续下降。然而，尽管发病率有所下降，但中国胃癌的总体负担仍将显著高于全球平均水平。鉴于中国庞大的人口基数和人口老龄化，胃癌的负担将是中国面临的一项重大公共卫生挑战。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology 医学-胃肠肝病学

CiteScore

7.90

自引率

2.40%

发文量

326

审稿时长

2.3 months

期刊介绍： Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology is produced 12 times per year and publishes peer-reviewed original papers, reviews and editorials concerned with clinical practice and research in the fields of hepatology, gastroenterology and endoscopy. Papers cover the medical, radiological, pathological, biochemical, physiological and historical aspects of the subject areas. All submitted papers are reviewed by at least two referees expert in the field of the submitted paper.