Deciphering the Relationship Between Moisture Flux and Monsoon Extreme Rainfall Over the West Coast of India

IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Tesna Maria, Ajil Kottayil, Prince Xavier, Viju O. John
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Abstract

The west coast of India has recently been experiencing torrential monsoon rains, a trend that studies indicate is likely to continue under future warming scenarios. This study investigates the link between moisture flux and extreme rainfall over the west coast, using observational and reanalysis datasets for the monsoon seasons (June to September) from 1990 to 2023. The analysis shows that, over the Indian subcontinent, rainfall along the west coast is primarily influenced by large-scale moisture flux from the Arabian Sea. By decomposing the vertically integrated moisture flux into dynamic and thermodynamic components, this study observes that the thermodynamic component of moisture flux exhibits an increasing trend over the southwest coast, while this increasing trend is more prominent for the dynamic component over the northwest coast. Extreme rainfall over the southwest coast is increasing at a rate of 0.23 mm per season, attributed primarily to the increase in the thermodynamic component of moisture flux. It is observed that the rate of sea surface temperature (SST) increase over the Arabian Sea is faster than over the Bay of Bengal, with the average SST over the southeast Arabian Sea exceeding 28°C in recent years. Observations indicate that warming over the southeast Arabian Sea is strongly coupled with moisture accumulation observed over the southwest coast. This study provides strong evidence of a link between moisture transport, extreme rainfall and SST, identifying the southwest coast as a region vulnerable to climate change. Over the northwest coast, the incidence of extreme rainfall is associated with the strengthening of dynamic processes, and the mean monsoon rainfall in this region is increasing in alignment with the rising dynamic component of moisture flux.

解读印度西海岸水汽通量与季风极端降雨的关系
印度西海岸最近经历了猛烈的季风性降雨,研究表明,在未来变暖的情况下,这一趋势可能会继续下去。本研究利用1990年至2023年季风季节(6月至9月)的观测和再分析数据集,调查了西海岸湿度通量与极端降雨之间的联系。分析表明,在印度次大陆上空,沿西海岸的降雨主要受到来自阿拉伯海的大尺度水汽通量的影响。通过将垂直积分的水汽通量分解为动力和热力分量,研究发现西南海岸水汽通量的热力分量呈增加趋势,而西北海岸的动力分量增加趋势更为突出。西南海岸的极端降雨正以每季0.23毫米的速度增加,这主要是由于水分通量的热力学成分增加。结果表明,阿拉伯海的海温上升速度快于孟加拉湾,近年来阿拉伯海东南部的平均海温超过28°C。观测表明,阿拉伯海东南部的变暖与西南海岸观测到的水汽积累密切相关。这项研究为水汽输送、极端降雨和海温之间的联系提供了强有力的证据,确定了西南海岸是一个易受气候变化影响的地区。在西北海岸,极端降水的发生与动力过程的加强有关,该地区季风平均降雨量的增加与水汽通量动力分量的上升一致。
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来源期刊
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
7.70%
发文量
417
审稿时长
4 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions
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