Reevaluating the Flynn effect, and the reversal: Temporal trends and measurement invariance in Norwegian armed forces intelligence scores

IF 3.3 2区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Morten Nordmo , Tore Nøttestad Norrøne , Ole Christian Lang-Ree
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Since 1954, the Norwegian Armed Forces have annually administered an unchanged general mental ability test to male cohorts, comprising figure matrices, word similarities, and mathematical reasoning tests. These stable and representative data have supported various claims about shifts in general mental ability (GMA) levels, notably the Flynn effect and its reversal, influencing extensive research linking these scores with health and other outcomes. This study examines whether observed temporal trends in scores reflect changes in latent intelligence or are confounded by evolving test characteristics and specific test-taking abilities in numerical reasoning, word comprehension, and figure matrices reasoning. Our findings, using multiple-group factor analysis and multiple indicator multiple cause (MIMIC) models, indicate that while there was a general upward trend in observed scores until 1993, this was predominantly driven by enhancements in the fluid intelligence task, specifically figure matrices reasoning. Notably, these gains do not uniformly translate to a rise in underlying GMA, suggesting the presence of domain-specific improvements and test characteristic changes over time. Conversely, the observed decline is primarily due to decreases in word comprehension and numerical reasoning tests, also reflecting specific abilities not attributable to changes in the latent GMA factor. Our findings further challenge the validity of claims that changes in the general factor drive the Flynn effect and its reversal. Furthermore, they caution against using these scores for longitudinal studies without accounting for changes in test characteristics.
重新评估弗林效应和逆转:挪威武装部队智力得分的时间趋势和测量不变性
自1954年以来,挪威武装部队每年对男性进行一项不变的一般心理能力测试,包括图形矩阵、单词相似度和数学推理测试。这些稳定且具有代表性的数据支持了关于一般心理能力(GMA)水平变化的各种说法,特别是弗林效应及其逆转,影响了将这些分数与健康和其他结果联系起来的广泛研究。本研究探讨了观察到的分数的时间趋势是否反映了潜在智力的变化,或者是由不断发展的测试特征和特定的测试能力在数值推理、文字理解和图形矩阵推理中混淆。我们使用多组因素分析和多指标多原因(MIMIC)模型的研究结果表明,尽管在1993年之前观察到的分数总体呈上升趋势,但这主要是由流体智力任务的增强所驱动的,特别是图形矩阵推理。值得注意的是,这些收益并没有统一地转化为潜在GMA的上升,这表明随着时间的推移存在特定领域的改进和测试特征的变化。相反,观察到的下降主要是由于单词理解和数字推理测试的下降,也反映了不归因于潜在GMA因素变化的特定能力。我们的研究结果进一步挑战了一般因素的变化驱动弗林效应及其逆转的说法的有效性。此外,他们警告不要在没有考虑测试特征变化的情况下将这些分数用于纵向研究。
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来源期刊
Intelligence
Intelligence PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
13.30%
发文量
64
审稿时长
69 days
期刊介绍: This unique journal in psychology is devoted to publishing original research and theoretical studies and review papers that substantially contribute to the understanding of intelligence. It provides a new source of significant papers in psychometrics, tests and measurement, and all other empirical and theoretical studies in intelligence and mental retardation.
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