Heterogeneous housing bubbles and monetary policy

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI:10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104079

Kun Duan , Liya Zhang , Shuyun Chen , Andrew Urquhart

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper isolates rational and naive bubbles within a unified framework allowing bounded rationality, and studies how monetary policy surprises affect these bubbles’ characteristics differently. Employing a comprehensive dataset in urban China, our results demonstrate that both the magnitude and type of housing bubbles evolve across locations over time. Tightening monetary policy is found to exert a containing role in rational bubble dynamics but its role in naive bubbles is less significant. Our results confirm the effectiveness of contractionary monetary policy and home purchase restrictions in combating China’s housing bubbles thanks to the nationwide dominance of a rational bubble type.

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本文在一个允许有界理性的统一框架内分离出理性泡沫和幼稚泡沫，并研究货币政策意外是如何对这些泡沫的特征产生不同影响的。通过使用中国城市的综合数据集，我们的研究结果表明，住房泡沫的规模和类型会随着时间的推移而在不同地区发生演变。我们发现，紧缩性货币政策在理性泡沫动态中发挥了遏制作用，但在幼稚泡沫中的作用却不那么显著。由于理性泡沫类型在全国范围内占主导地位，我们的结果证实了紧缩性货币政策和住房限购政策在抑制中国房地产泡沫方面的有效性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Review of Financial Analysis BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

10.30

自引率

9.80%

发文量

366

期刊介绍： The International Review of Financial Analysis (IRFA) is an impartial refereed journal designed to serve as a platform for high-quality financial research. It welcomes a diverse range of financial research topics and maintains an unbiased selection process. While not limited to U.S.-centric subjects, IRFA, as its title suggests, is open to valuable research contributions from around the world.