Development of a framework for decarbonising the electricity supply under climate change scenarios

Abstract

When developing a decarbonisation scenario for future electricity supply, a holistic approach to the electricity generation mix should be taken while considering the climate-induced changes to resource availability and variability. The objective of this study was to develop a framework for a resource-based analysis of the optimal renewable mix to decarbonise future electricity supplies. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) was used to run very high resolution (≈1 km²) simulations using the latest climate change scenarios (CMIP6 SSPs), to then calculate the wind power density, solar photovoltaic power density and future changes to water availability. A fully decarbonised electricity supply scenario was proposed based on a site selection algorithm that selects the most cost-effective source between wind and solar combined with changes to hydroelectricity. The results show that most of the study area is viable for solar photovoltaic while floating wind is the most cost-effective solution. Overall, wind power has the highest potential contribution to total electricity production, with 54 % for SSP2-4.5 and 46 % for SSP5-8.5. Additionally, the results suggest that the amount of land required for the implementation of renewable installations to meet future demand is equivalent to less than 2 % of the study domain area.