Spatial–temporal evolution of economic-ecological benefits and their driving factors in Yellow River irrigation areas

Abstract

Understanding the spatial–temporal variations in the economic-ecological benefits and driving factors within the Yellow River irrigation areas (YRIA) is crucial for ensuring high-quality socioeconomic development and ecological environment health of the Yellow River Basin, China, which is inherently water scarce. This study improved an accounting method for economic-ecological benefits in irrigation areas, based on the quantification methods for ecosystem service value and economic output value at constant prices, and quantitatively analyzed the different types of benefits and total benefits in the YRIA. The key driving factors of the economic-ecological benefits per unit area (EEBUA) in the YRIA and their spatial and temporal driving mechanisms were analyzed by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. The results revealed that the economic-ecological benefits markedly increased during 1990–2020. The YRIA in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River had stronger economic benefit output capabilities, while the YRIA in the upper reaches of the Yellow River had stronger ecological benefit output capabilities. The order of importance of the key factors influencing the economic-ecological benefits was precipitation (PRE), industrial water use (IW), the proportion of the cultivated land area (CL), the proportion of the arable land area (AL), and agricultural water use (AW). Under the limited total water consumption assumption, the average standardized regression coefficient of AW with the EEBUA decreased from 0.034 to −0.120 in 1995–2000, indicating a shift from a promoting to an inhibiting effect. The average standardized regression coefficient of IW notably increased from 0.37 to 1.69, indicating a rapid rise in the importance of IW for the economic-ecological benefits economic-ecological benefits in 2010–2015. This inhibiting effect of AW on the EEBUA was greater in the downstream areas of the Yellow River, and the intensity gradually increased. These findings could provide a basis for water and land resource utilization planning and the yellow river water dispatch scheme.