A cross-sectional study comparing machine learning and logistic regression techniques for predicting osteoporosis in a group at high risk of cardiovascular disease among old adults.

Abstract

Background: Osteoporosis has become a significant public health concern that necessitates the application of appropriate techniques to calculate disease risk. Traditional methods, such as logistic regression,have been widely used to identify risk factors and predict disease probability. However,with the advent of advanced statistics techniques,machine learning models offer promising alternatives for improving prediction accuracy. What's more, studies that use risk factors and prediction models for osteoporosis in high-risk groups for cardiovascular diseases are scarce. We aimed to explore the risk factors and disease probability of osteoporosis by comparing logistic regression with four machine learning models. By doing so,we seek to provide insights into the most effective methods for osteoporosis risk assessment and contribute to the development of tailored prevention strategies at high risk of cardiovascular disease among old adults.

Methods: We carried out a cross-sectional investigation of a high-risk group in cardiovascular patients. A logistic regression model and four common machine learning methods,DT,RF,SVM,and XGBoost were implemented to create a prediction model using information from 211 participants who met the inclusion requirements. Metrics for calibration and discrimination were used to compare the models.

Results: In total,211 patients were enrolled. The AUCs were 0.751 for the logistic regression model,0.72 for the SVM model,0.70 for the random forest model,0.697 for the model XGBoost,and 0.69 for the decision tree model. The logistic regression model outperforms other models for machine learning. According to the logistic regression model,there were nine predictors,including age,sex,glucose,TG (triglyceride),fracture history,stroke history,and CNV (copy number variation) nssv659422, and low-sodium salt. A well-calibrated result of 0.199 on the Brier scale. The findings of the internal validation demonstrated the high degree of repeatability of the prediction model employed in this study.

Conclusions: In this study, we discovered that when predicting osteoporosis,a number of machine learning techniques fell short of logistic regression. In a specific population, we have innovatively developed a risk prediction model for osteoporosis events that integrates genetic and environmental factors, is an effective tool for assessing osteoporosis risk and can serve as the basis for specialized intervention approaches.