Where could climate-smart rewilding be located in Europe?

Abstract

Climate-smart rewilding is a promising approach to ecological restoration that combines the benefits of dynamic and process-based restoration with carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation. However, little is known about suitable locations for climate-smart rewilding in Europe as there is a lack of continental scale, spatial assessments of where to rewild. We present an approach to map the potential for climate-smart rewilding in Europe by considering three dimensions: (1) Ecological potential representing the best conditions for restoring key ecological processes, (2) Carbon potential describing the potential for carbon sequestration, and (3) Land potential reflecting the societal (opportunity) costs of dedicating land to rewilding. Using these three dimensions, we map the climate-smart rewilding potential across Europe and analyse synergies and trade-offs between them. Our findings show that the potential for climate-smart rewilding is scattered across Europe with hotspots predominantly found in mountainous regions, such as the Alps and the Scottish Highlands. The Iberian Peninsula, parts of Scandinavia, the North of the UK, and the East of Europe, also show opportunities for climate-smart rewilding. The patterns highlight that high potential is not equally distributed across European countries, adding complexity to the actual implementation of measures to reach restoration targets. Furthermore, high potential areas are often characterised by a high potential for one dimension, with limited synergies between the ecological, carbon and land potential dimensions, emphasising the tension between competing land demands. The approach presented here offers valuable input for planning processes and the exploration of future scenarios.