The double-edged sword effects of land use optimization based on dual carbon goals: A perspective from landscape ecological risk.

Abstract

Carbon neutrality has emerged as a global consensus in response to climate change, and land use/land cover (LULC) optimization is considered a crucial strategy for achieving this goal. In this context, China has proposed a dual carbon strategy of peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving neutrality by 2060, which provides a policy framework for LULC optimization. However, existing studies on dual carbon goal-oriented LULC optimization often overlook potential ecological risks while emphasizing benefits and fail to fully explore the possible "double-edged sword effect" of LULC optimization. To address this gap, a multi-scenario, multi-objective integrated LULC optimization model was developed in this study, considering both 2030 carbon peaking and 2060 carbon neutrality. Landscape ecological risk (LER) was introduced as an additional evaluation dimension. Furthermore, an integrated three-dimensional (LER, carbon emissions, and carbon storage) evaluation system was established to identify key areas in Shanxi Province to achieve dual carbon goals. The results show that, compared to the natural development (ND) scenario, the optimized scenarios better balance economic and ecological value, reduce carbon emissions, and increase carbon storage, with the carbon neutrality (CN) scenario performing the best. However, LULC optimization also leads to an increase in the LER, particularly in the CN scenario. Furthermore, through the three-dimensional evaluation system, positive and negative areas for achieving the dual carbon goals in Shanxi Province were identified, including the discovery of a "Negative Belt" in the region. The findings emphasize the necessity of integrating policy considerations in the design of multi-objective and multi-scenario frameworks for LULC optimization research and highlight the importance of considering the unique perspective of LER.