Optimising Wind Energy Site Selection in Northern Afghanistan: An Integrated Analysis of Analytical Hierarchy Process and Genetic Algorithms

Abstract

The present work evaluates wind energy capabilities in different provinces in Afghanistan using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and genetic algorithms (GA) techniques. AHP analysis used Expert Choice software to achieve the best criterion weights according to life cycle assessment results involving major criteria such as wind speed, slope, elevation, climate zone, air pressure and vicinity to infrastructure. The study further shows that the northwestern provinces, namely Kunduz, Balkh, Jawzjan, and Faryab, have the greatest potential in large wind power plants because of cost influences and wind speed. Altogether, these provinces would be expected to produce roughly 26.3 GWh of renewable energy per year, strongly supporting Afghanistan's renewable energy goals. On the low side, provinces like Badakhshan and Takhar have small sizing capacity with maximum suitability for localised and off-grid applications; Badakhshan has an area of 432 km² within a total of 2292 km²; Takhar has 217.7 km² and has limited potential for utility-scale connected wind farms. However, the GA method, which is known for its accuracy, supports the AHP result for Badakhshan but depicts lower suitability for Takhar. The GA unequivocally points out Kunduz medium-suitable areas and sporadic potentiality levels in Samangan and Baghlan Province. A total of 918 km² of the Kunduz area is potential, while 854 km² are moderately potential for wind energy. The province of Sar-e-Pul has identified the Southern region as a potential wind energy source-524 km². In total, 1816 km² provinces of Balkh and Jawzjan together have the largest wind energy potential of about 14.3 GWh per annum. Combined with the estimate, the total harvestable wind energy in the study area is 46.6 GWh. The results of this paper are important for policymakers and stakeholders to select appropriate sites for wind farm development, promote the sustainable energy agenda, and meet the increasing energy demands in Afghanistan.