Conservation Gap Within a Nature Reserve: A Case Study in the Biodiversity Hotspot of Rare and Endangered Plants at the Southern Gaoligong Mountains 高黎贡山南段稀有濒危植物保护空缺分析

Abstract

Biodiversity loss significantly impacts the stability and functioning of ecosystems, driven by factors such as climate change, human activities, and other influences. Predicting species distributions and conducting conservation gap analyses are essential for identifying key conservation areas, evaluating conservation effectiveness, and highlighting under-protected areas, thereby providing valuable insights to mitigate biodiversity loss. The Gaoligong Mountains, located within the Three Parallel Rivers of Yunnan Protected Areas (a UNESCO World Natural Heritage Site), serve as an intersection for the biota of the eastern Himalayas, the Indochina Peninsula, and the Hengduan Mountains. The region is a vitally important biological exchange corridor and a long-standing hotspot for plant geography research. Using the distribution data for 361 rare and endangered plants and eight environmental variables, this study employed the InVEST and random forest (RF) models to determine the current and future potential distribution of these species in the southern Gaoligong Mountains, considering various climate change scenarios combined with currently suitable habitats. The study also evaluated existing protected areas and used a transition matrix to quantify changes in potential habitats. The results show that the current potential suitable habitat in the southern Gaoligong Mountains spans 2987.38 km², with only 23.14% of this area falling within protected zones, leaving a 76.86% protection gap. Additionally, areas with highly suitable habitats are predicted to decline under future climate change scenarios, emphasizing the inadequacy of existing protected areas in comprehensively safeguarding rare and endangered wild plant species. Habitat loss, primarily driven by the expansion of agricultural activities, further exacerbates this issue. To address these conservation gaps, this study recommends prioritizing the integrity of vertical zones when optimizing protected areas, thus ensuring continuous protection for rare and endangered plant species.