A seasonal assessment of urban thermal behavior and its links to land use patterns in Harare, Zimbabwe

Abstract

This study explores the seasonal changes of land use and land cover (LULC) changes and their influence on the land surface thermal environment (LSTE) in Harare, Zimbabwe, using Landsat Level 2 data for 2005 and 2019. The analysis focuses on two distinct seasons; hot (mid-September to mid-November) and cool (mid-May to mid-September). Land Surface Temperature (LST) was derived through radiometric and atmospheric corrections, while LULC classification employed the Random Forest method. Results revealed a rise in mean LST across all seasons, from 23.15 °C in the 2005 cool season to 32.28 °C in the 2019 hot season. Residential areas expanded significantly (43.2 % in 2005 to 58.4 % in 2019), primarily at the expense of green spaces and bare lands. Seasonal variations showed that bare lands exhibited the highest LST intensity, increasing from 5.8 °C in 2005 to 7.5 °C in 2019, while green spaces demonstrated cooling effects, albeit with reduced coverage. The research highlights the critical impact of urban expansion on LST and underscores the need for sustainable urban planning strategies, such as green infrastructure and compact development, to mitigate thermal stress. The findings provide actionable insights for urban planners to address the growing challenges posed by urban heat and environmental degradation in tropical cities like Harare.