Does urbanization inevitably exacerbate cropland pressure? The multiscale evidence from China

Abstract

Understanding the relationship between urbanization and cropland pressure is important for achieving the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The impact of urbanization on cropland pressure lacks a comprehensive analysis within a cropland supply-demand framework, particularly when considering ecological security from multiscale perspectives. In this study, we calculate cropland quantity pressure (CQP) and cropland ecological pressure (CEP) by employing a modified cropland pressure index and ecological footprint model on the basis of cropland’s ecosystem service value. Then, based on the metacoupling theory, the spatial self-lagging model (SLX) is applied to test the local and remote impacts of urbanization on cropland pressure. The results show that from 2009 to 2022, China's CQP increased by 6.87%, while CEP decreased by 7.89%, both remaining at moderate levels. Excessive ecological pressure was observed in major grain-producing areas, with CEP 20.61% above the national average. Urbanization exhibits trade-off effects on CQP and CEP; spatial urbanization intensifies both pressures, whereas population and social urbanization mitigate them. Remote urbanization impacts cropland pressure consistently across provincial and city scales, while local effects vary due to uneven regional urbanization development. Major grain producing areas are particularly vulnerable to urbanization’s adverse effects, whether local or remote. Overall, China's cropland pressure remains severe, with a trade-off between CQP and CEP, and urbanization is not a single pressure source. This study carefully examines the relationship between urbanization and cropland pressure and provides new insights for sustainable use of cropland worldwide.