Explainable modeling for wind power forecasting: A Glass-Box model with high accuracy

Abstract

Machine learning models (e.g., neural networks) achieve high accuracy in wind power forecasting, but they are usually regarded as black boxes that lack interpretability. To address this issue, the paper proposes a glass-box model that combines high accuracy with transparency for wind power forecasting. Specifically, the core is to sum up the feature effects by constructing shape functions, which effectively map the intricate non-linear relationships between wind power output and input features. Furthermore, the forecasting model is enriched by incorporating interaction terms that adeptly capture interdependencies and synergies among the input features. The additive nature of the proposed glass-box model ensures its interpretability. Simulation results show that the proposed glass-box model effectively interprets the results of wind power forecasting from both global and instance perspectives. Besides, it outperforms most benchmark models and exhibits comparable performance to the best-performing neural networks. This dual strength of transparency and high accuracy positions the proposed glass-box model as a compelling choice for reliable wind power forecasting.