District heating resilience under high energy price shocks

IF 9 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI:10.1016/j.energy.2025.135855

Ieva Pakere, Lauma Balode, Guntars Krīgers, Dagnija Blumberga

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Abstract

Maintaining sustainable heating price levels is a crucial aspect of the future development of district heating (DH) systems to provide a low-carbon and affordable heat supply. The recent extreme increase in resource prices during the energy crisis in 2022/2023 has raised an important question of how to increase the overall resilience of energy systems. This research focuses particularly on the ability of DH systems to maintain affordable heat price levels under significantly increased resource prices. The simple definition of resilience has been attributed to the ability of a system to recover from adversity. A novel resilience capacity quantification methodology has been applied. The research analyses 10 different DH systems in Latvia with various heat production technologies and fuel mixes and their changes in heat prices from 2021 to 2023. The study identifies the resilience curves of each DH system and compares their ability to recover after the disruption. A composite resilience index has been developed for the DH supply systems of several municipalities in Latvia. To construct the DH resilience composite index, indicators were selected and grouped into four dimensions: technical, economic, environmental, and social. The DH resilience composite index merges fourteen criteria and compares which DH systems are more resilient to extreme changes in external conditions.

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高能源价格冲击下的区域供热复原力

维持可持续的供热价格水平是未来发展区域供热系统以提供低碳和可负担供热的一个重要方面。最近，在 2022/2023 年能源危机期间，资源价格极度上涨，这提出了一个重要问题，即如何提高能源系统的整体弹性。本研究特别关注在资源价格大幅上涨的情况下，供热系统维持可负担热价水平的能力。恢复能力的简单定义是系统从逆境中恢复的能力。研究采用了一种新颖的复原能力量化方法。研究分析了拉脱维亚 10 种不同的供热系统，这些系统采用了不同的制热技术和燃料组合，以及 2021 年至 2023 年期间热价的变化情况。研究确定了每个供热系统的复原曲线，并比较了它们在中断后的恢复能力。针对拉脱维亚多个城市的 DH 供应系统制定了综合复原指数。为了构建卫生防护复原力综合指数，我们选择了一些指标，并将其分为四个方面：技术、经济、环境和社会。卫生防疫复原力综合指数合并了十四项标准，并比较了哪些卫生防疫系统更能抵御外部条件的极端变化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Energy 工程技术-能源与燃料

CiteScore

15.30

自引率

14.40%

发文量

审稿时长

14.2 weeks

期刊介绍： Energy is a multidisciplinary, international journal that publishes research and analysis in the field of energy engineering. Our aim is to become a leading peer-reviewed platform and a trusted source of information for energy-related topics. The journal covers a range of areas including mechanical engineering, thermal sciences, and energy analysis. We are particularly interested in research on energy modelling, prediction, integrated energy systems, planning, and management. Additionally, we welcome papers on energy conservation, efficiency, biomass and bioenergy, renewable energy, electricity supply and demand, energy storage, buildings, and economic and policy issues. These topics should align with our broader multidisciplinary focus.