Tracking regional CH4 emissions through collocated air pollution measurement: a pilot application and robustness analysis in China

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI:10.1038/s41612-025-01011-1

Yifan Li, Bo Zheng

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Accurate regional methane (CH₄) emission monitoring is essential for effective climate mitigation but remains constrained by limited observational networks and challenged by diffuse emission sources. Here, we present an innovative regional CH₄ inversion system integrating satellite-based carbon monoxide (CO) observations with ground-based CH₄-to-CO flux ratios. Our study estimates China’s CH₄ fluxes between 2000 and 2021, revealing an average of 48.4 ± 13.8 Tg yr⁻¹ and a significant increasing trend of 1.1 ± 0.2 Tg yr⁻². Over the 22-year period, socio-economic development drove a 92.1 Tg increase in China’s CH₄ fluxes, partially offset by a 78.1 Tg reduction due to declining emission intensity; however, this mitigating effect weakened after 2015. Our results demonstrate comparability with independent estimates, and comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analyses confirm the robustness of our approach. This study highlights the potential of integrating air pollution monitoring into tracking regional greenhouse gas emissions.

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精确的区域甲烷（CH4）排放监测对有效减缓气候至关重要，但仍受制于有限的观测网络和扩散的排放源。在此，我们提出了一种创新的区域甲烷反演系统，该系统将基于卫星的一氧化碳（CO）观测与基于地面的甲烷-CO通量比进行了整合。我们的研究估算了 2000 年至 2021 年间中国的甲烷通量，结果显示平均为 48.4 ± 13.8 兆吨/年-1，并呈 1.1 ± 0.2 兆吨/年-2 的显著增长趋势。在这 22 年间，社会经济发展使中国的甲烷通量增加了 92.1 千兆克，但由于排放强度下降而减少的 78.1 千兆克部分抵消了这一增加；不过，这一缓解效应在 2015 年后有所减弱。我们的研究结果与独立估算结果具有可比性，全面的敏感性和不确定性分析证实了我们方法的稳健性。这项研究强调了将空气污染监测纳入区域温室气体排放跟踪的潜力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.