Dynamics of intensification of extreme precipitation events over the Arabian Peninsula derived from CMIP6 simulations

Abstract

This study derives historical and future changes in extreme precipitation events (EPEs) across the Arabian Peninsula (AP) using data from CMIP6 models. Both the frequency and intensity of EPEs are lower in historical CMIP6 data compared to observations. Despite this bias, CMIP6 models offer valuable insights into future climate projections. Across all emission-scenarios, significant increases in EPEs frequency and intensity are expected over the AP. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), some regions may experience a doubling of EPEs by the end-of-the-21st-century. This rise is attributed to several climate change-driven factors, including the southward-shift and intensification of subtropical-westerly-jet, increased transient activity, enhanced dynamical lifting, and increased moisture transport from nearby seas. These factors suggest a future atmosphere that will be more dynamic and moisture-rich than today. While these CMIP6 insights are crucial for guiding adaptation and mitigation strategies, enhanced EPE modeling is essential for precise decision-making amid rising future risks.