Dog-Mediated Rabies Surveillance in Nigeria (2014-2023): Investigating Seasonality and Spatial Clustering.

Abstract

Rabies is an important zoonotic disease responsible for 59,000 human deaths worldwide each year. More than a third of these deaths occur in Africa. The first step in controlling rabies is establishing the burden of disease through data analysis and investigating regional risk to help prioritise resources. Here, we evaluated the surveillance data collected over the last decade in Nigeria (2014-2023). A spatio-temporal model was developed using the NIMBLE (1.2.1) package in R to assess outbreak risk. Our analysis found a high risk of canine rabies outbreaks in Plateau state and its surrounding states, as well as increased trends of outbreaks from July to September. The high number of reported canine rabies outbreaks in the North Central region could be due to cross-border transmission or improved reporting in the area. However, this could be confounded by potential reporting bias, with 8 out of 37 states (21.6%) never reporting a single outbreak in the period studied. Improving surveillance efforts will highlight states and regions in need of prioritisation for vaccinations and post-exposure prophylaxis. Using a One Health approach will likely help improve reporting, such as through integrated bite-case management, creating a more sustainable solution for the epidemiology of rabies in Nigeria in the future.