Effects of climate, virus, and host characteristics on the seroprevalence of pathogenic viruses in terrestrial mammals.

Abstract

Pathogenic viruses are globally distributed and have caused severe diseases or death in wildlife populations, posing enormous threats to wild animals, especially threatened species. The transmission dynamics of pathogenic viral diseases are affected by complex factors and their interactions, such as climate, virus traits, host life-history traits, and environmental conditions. The seroprevalence of viruses can reflect the historical exposure of hosts to viruses and may indicate accumulated pathogenic viral disease severity in wildlife populations. We studied viruses with demonstrated virulence that have caused diseases or death in their natural hosts among wild terrestrial mammals. We extracted data on virus traits, host species, host life-history traits, and climate conditions from the peer-reviewed literature to explore their effects on and interactions with virus seroprevalence in wildlife populations. Ungulates were the most studied group followed by carnivores. The seroprevalence of pathogenic viruses was positively correlated with temperature in wildlife populations. The correlation between precipitation and virus seroprevalence was complicated and depended on different interactions of variables. Gregarious animals and nonmigratory ungulates were more vulnerable to high viral seroprevalence than other species. As global temperatures increase, drought will increase, and gregarious and nonmigratory ungulates may thus experience increased spread and incidence of pathogenic viruses, especially vector-borne viruses. Gregarious carnivores may face a high risk of outbreaks of viruses that are transmitted directly (e.g., canine distemper virus, canine parvovirus, and rabies virus). Our results can be used to inform protocols for surveillance of specific viruses and susceptible host life-history traits to prevent epizootics in natural populations, which will be crucial for the conservation of terrestrial mammals under global climate change.