Evaluating Past Range Shifts and Niche Dynamics of Giant Pandas Since the Last Interglacial.

Abstract

Understanding the response of species to past climate change provides great opportunities to know their adaptive capacity for resilience under future climate change. Since the Late Pleistocene, dramatic climate fluctuations have significantly impacted the distribution of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). However, how the spatial distribution and climatic niche of giant pandas shifted in response to past climate change remain poorly understood. Based on the known distribution records (fossil and present day) and the most updated climate projections for the Last Interglacial (LIG; ~120 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~22 ka), Mid-Holocene (MH; ~6 ka), and the present day, we predicted and compared the distribution and climatic niche of giant pandas. The results show that giant pandas have undergone a considerable range contraction (a 28.27% reduction) followed by a marked range expansion (a 75.8% increase) during the LIG-LGM-MH period, while its climatic niche remained relatively stable. However, from the MH to the current, both the distribution area and climatic niche of giant pandas have undergone significant changes. Our findings suggest that the giant panda may adjust its distribution to track stable climatic niches in response to future climate change. Future conservation planning should designate accessible areas for giant pandas and adjust priority conservation areas as needed.