Spatiotemporal dynamics trends of environmental pollution emergencies in China amid economic growth

Abstract

Environmental pollution emergencies (EPEs) pose significant threats to ecological stability and social security, necessitating a further understanding of their spatiotemporal dynamics and economic linkages for sustainable development. This study investigates the 31-year (1992–2022) spatiotemporal characteristics of EPEs across China and their relationship with economic growth within the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework, reflecting the dynamic interaction between economic expansion and environmental risk by hypothesizing an inverted U-shaped relationship between EPE frequency and per capita GDP. Utilizing 31 provincial-level panel data and spatial econometric models, we find that EPEs exhibit significant spatial clustering, with higher frequency in the economically advanced southeast and lower incidence in the less-developed northwest. The results support the EKC hypothesis, revealing that EPE frequency initially rises with economic growth but declines after reaching a turning point. These findings underscore the need for region-specific policies to balance economic growth and environmental protection, while highlighting the importance of integrated governance and future research on finer-scale data analysis, advanced econometric modeling, and cross-country comparisons to enhance EPE management.