Demography of owned dogs across an East African continuum of high-low human density

Abstract

Understanding the demographics of domestic dogs is essential for effective disease control strategies, particularly in areas where dogs serve as reservoirs of diseases, such as rabies. In this study, conducted in a region proximate to Nairobi, Kenya, we aimed to address the lack of current data on dog demographics. This area spans a high-to-low human density continuum, providing a unique setting for examining the relationship between human and dog populations. We used a household (HH) survey approach, stratifying the area by human population density and selecting sub-locations for every 10th percentile of the population density stratum. Households were randomly selected across strata to estimate the population of owned dogs, which was then extrapolated to the county level. Additionally, a negative binomial regression model was used to analyse the factors influencing the number of dogs owned by households. We found a human-to-owned dog ratio of 3.3:1, indicating an estimated owned dog population of 421,079 (95 % CI: 408,702–424,950) in a county with 1414,022 humans in the last census, with 65 % of the households owning a mean of 2.45 dogs. Multivariable analysis revealed that the presence of a female dog had the strongest association with owning more dogs (OR = 3.08, CI: 2.71–3.50). Wealthier households (OR = 1.67, 95 % CI: 1.12–2.49), those keeping livestock (OR = 1.67, 95 % CI: 1.36–2.02), and larger households (OR = 1.05, 95 % CI: 1.03–1.07) were significantly more likely to own more dogs. These findings suggest that actual human-dog ratios may be higher than estimated in sub-Saharan Africa. Accurate dog demographic data is important for dog-mediated disease and conditions control strategies due to its important logistical and financial implications for implementing targeted control initiatives to improve public health and animal welfare.