Out-of-equilibrium inference of feeding rates through population data from generic consumer-resource stochastic dynamics

Abstract

Statistical models are often structurally unidentifiable, because different sets of parameters can lead to equal model outcomes. To be useful for prediction and parameter inference from data, stochastic population models need to be identifiable, this meaning that model parameters can be uniquely inferred from a large number of model observations. In particular, precise estimation of feeding rates in consumer-resource dynamics is crucial, because consumer-resource processes are central in determining biomass transport across ecosystems. Model parameters are usually estimated at stationarity, because in that case model analyses are often easier. In this contribution we analyze the problem of parameter redundancy in a multi-resource consumer-resource model, showing that model identifiability depends on whether the dynamics have reached stationarity or not. To be precise, we: (i) Calculate the steady-state and out-of-equilibrium probability distributions of predator's abundances analytically using generating functions, which allow us to unveil parameter redundancy and carry out proper maximum likelihood estimation. (ii) Conduct in silico experiments by tracking the abundance of consumers that are either searching for or handling prey, data then used for maximum likelihood parameter estimation. (iii) Show that, when model observations are recorded out of equilibrium, feeding parameters are truly identifiable, whereas if sampling is done solely at stationarity, only ratios of rates can be inferred from data (i.e., parameters are redundant). We discuss the implications of our results when inferring parameters of general dynamical models.