Updated cholangiocarcinoma incidence trends and projections in Thailand by region based on data from four population-based cancer registries

IF 5 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES

The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI:10.1016/j.lansea.2025.100569

Oraya Sahat , Surichai Bilheem , Apiradee Lim , Siriporn Kamsa-ard , Apiporn Thinkhamrop Suwannatrai , Surin Uadrang , Atit Leklob , Wasan Chansaard , Nithima Sriket , Chalongpon Santong , Karnchana Daoprasert , Supot Kamsa-ard

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Abstract

Background

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a significant health concern in Thailand, as the age-standardized rates (ASR) and other trends fluctuate across different regions. However, comprehensive national estimates are lacking. This study examined the Thai ASR of CCA trends from 2012 to 2021 and projected the incidence rates to 2026.

Methods

This retrospective cohort analysis examined 6379 CCA cases from population-based cancer registries (PBCRs) in the northern, central, northeastern, and southern regions for the time period January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2021. The Joinpoint, age-period-cohort, and Nordpred models were used to assess CCA incidence trends and predictions.

Findings

CCA incidence trends in Thailand showed a decrease, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of −7.20% (95% CI: −11.04 to −3.19) for males, and −5.81% (95% CI: −10.81 to −0.54) for females. The projected incidence rate per 100,000 person-years for 2026 varied slightly according to the model: Joinpoint (males: 6.1, females: 3.4), age-period-cohort (males: 6.0, females: 3.3), and Nordpred (males: 5.5, females: 3.4). Regional analyses revealed decreasing trends in the northern and northeastern regions, with 2026 projections indicating further declines exceeding the 10-year trends. Owing to the small sample size, trends in the central and southern regions could not be determined.

Interpretation

Thailand's CCA rate has generally decreased but varies geographically; the northern and northeastern regions remain at high risk. To minimize CCA nationally, initiatives should be maintained, new risk factors explored, diagnostics improved, and regional variances addressed.

Funding

The Graduate School of Khon Kaen University.

查看原文本刊更多论文

根据四个基于人群的癌症登记处的数据，泰国按区域划分的最新胆管癌发病率趋势和预测

在泰国，胆管癌（CCA）是一个重要的健康问题，因为年龄标准化率（ASR）和其他趋势在不同地区有所波动。然而，缺乏全面的国家估计。本研究调查了泰国2012年至2021年CCA的ASR趋势，并预测了2026年的发病率。方法回顾性队列分析了2012年1月1日至2021年12月31日期间来自北部、中部、东北部和南部地区基于人群的癌症登记处（pbcr）的6379例CCA病例。采用Joinpoint、age-period-cohort和Nordpred模型评估CCA发病率趋势和预测。发现泰国scca发病率趋势呈下降趋势，男性平均年百分比变化（AAPC）为- 7.20% (95% CI: - 11.04至- 3.19)，女性为- 5.81% （95% CI: - 10.81至- 0.54）。2026年每10万人年的预计发病率根据模型略有不同：Joinpoint（男性：6.1，女性：3.4），年龄-时期-队列（男性：6.0，女性：3.3）和Nordpred（男性：5.5，女性：3.4）。区域分析显示，北部和东北部地区呈下降趋势，2026年的预测表明，下降幅度将超过10年的趋势。由于样本量小，无法确定中部和南部地区的趋势。泰国的CCA率总体上有所下降，但在地理上有所不同；北部和东北部地区的风险仍然很高。为了在全国范围内最大限度地减少CCA，应保持倡议，探索新的风险因素，改进诊断方法，并解决区域差异。孔敬大学研究生院资助。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia

CiteScore

2.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量