Development of a visualized risk prediction system for sarcopenia in older adults using machine learning: a cohort study based on CHARLS.

IF 3 3区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Frontiers in Public Health Pub Date : 2025-03-12 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2025.1544894

Jinsong Du, Xinru Tao, Le Zhu, Heming Wang, Wenhao Qi, Xiaoqiang Min, Shujie Wei, Xiaoyan Zhang, Qiang Liu

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Abstract

Introduction: The older adult are at high risk of sarcopenia, making early identification and scientific intervention crucial for healthy aging.

Methods: This study utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), including a cohort of 2,717 middle-aged and older adult participants. Ten machine learning algorithms, such as CatBoost, XGBoost, and NGBoost, were used to construct predictive models.

Results: Among these algorithms, the XGBoost model performed the best, with an ROC-AUC of 0.7, and was selected as the final predictive model for sarcopenia risk. SHAP technology was used to visualize the prediction results, enhancing the interpretability of the model, and the system was built on a web platform.

Discussion: The system provides the probability of sarcopenia onset within 4 years based on input variables and identifies critical influencing factors. This facilitates understanding and use by medical professionals. The system supports early identification and scientific intervention for sarcopenia in the older adult, offering significant clinical value and application potential.

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来源期刊

Frontiers in Public Health Medicine-Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

CiteScore

4.80

自引率

7.70%

发文量

4469

审稿时长

14 weeks

期刊介绍： Frontiers in Public Health is a multidisciplinary open-access journal which publishes rigorously peer-reviewed research and is at the forefront of disseminating and communicating scientific knowledge and impactful discoveries to researchers, academics, clinicians, policy makers and the public worldwide. The journal aims at overcoming current fragmentation in research and publication, promoting consistency in pursuing relevant scientific themes, and supporting finding dissemination and translation into practice. Frontiers in Public Health is organized into Specialty Sections that cover different areas of research in the field. Please refer to the author guidelines for details on article types and the submission process.