Disability-adjusted life years for colorectal cancer in China, 2017-2030: A prevalence-based analysis focusing on the impact of screening coverage and the application of local weights.
Yujie Wu, Yanjie Li, Xin Wang, Xinyi Zhou, Xinxin Yan, Hong Wang, Juan Zhu, Wanqing Chen, Jufang Shi
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: Most studies have evaluated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients based on a set of generic disability weights (DWs). This study aimed to apply local CRC-stage-specific DWs to estimate the burden of DALYs for CRC (CRC-DALYs) in populations in China and consider the influence of local screening coverage of CRC.
Methods: A prevalence-based model was constructed using data from various sources. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated mainly via cumulative prevalence data (based on CRC incidence rates, population numbers, and survival rates), stage-specific proportions of CRC, and DWs of the local population. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated based on the CRC mortality rates and standard life expectancies. CRC incidence and mortality rates for the years 2020, 2025, and 2030 were estimated by joinpoint regression, and the corresponding DALYs were predicted. The main assumption was made for CRC screening coverage. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of population, DWs, and coverage.
Results: In 2017, among the Chinese population, the estimated number of CRC-DALYs was 4,303,314 (11.8% for YLDs). If CRC screening coverage rate in China (2.3%) remains unchanged, the overall DALYs in 2030 are predicted to increase by 37.2% (45.1% of those aged ≥65 years). More optimistically, the DALYs would then decrease by 0.7% in 2030 (from 5,902,454 to 5,860,200) if the coverage could be increased to 25.0%. A sensitivity analysis revealed that using local DWs would change the base-case values by 5.7%.
Conclusions: The estimated CRC-DALYs in China using population-specific DWs were considerably lower (with a higher percentage of YLDs) than the global burden of disease (GBD) estimates (5,865,004, of 4.6% for YLDs), suggesting the impact extent of applying local parameters. Sustainable scale-up CRC screening needs to be in place to moderate the growth trend of CRC-DALYs in China.
期刊介绍：
The Chinese Medical Journal (CMJ) is published semimonthly in English by the Chinese Medical Association, and is a peer reviewed general medical journal for all doctors, researchers, and health workers regardless of their medical specialty or type of employment. Established in 1887, it is the oldest medical periodical in China and is distributed worldwide. The journal functions as a window into China’s medical sciences and reflects the advances and progress in China’s medical sciences and technology. It serves the objective of international academic exchange. The journal includes Original Articles, Editorial, Review Articles, Medical Progress, Brief Reports, Case Reports, Viewpoint, Clinical Exchange, Letter,and News,etc. CMJ is abstracted or indexed in many databases including Biological Abstracts, Chemical Abstracts, Index Medicus/Medline, Science Citation Index (SCI), Current Contents, Cancerlit, Health Plan & Administration, Embase, Social Scisearch, Aidsline, Toxline, Biocommercial Abstracts, Arts and Humanities Search, Nuclear Science Abstracts, Water Resources Abstracts, Cab Abstracts, Occupation Safety & Health, etc. In 2007, the impact factor of the journal by SCI is 0.636, and the total citation is 2315.
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