The black soil region of northeast China shows a warming and drying trend between 1980 and 2100 based on ERA5-land, CMIP6 and GEE

Abstract

Global warming has been extensively documented in the twenty-first century, resulting in increased frequency of extreme weather events that pose threats to both agriculture and human welfare worldwide. The black soil region in Northeast China (NEBS) is home to a large region and vulnerable to climate change. NEBS benefits from its fertile soil enriched with soil organic matter and has been serving as one of China’s key commodity grain bases. Great efforts have been made in previous studies evaluating the climate change in NEBS. However, spatiotemporal patterns of climate change remain unknown. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to assess climate differences under different land cover and altitude gradient in NEBS between 1981 and 2020 based on Google Earth Engine (GEE) and ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation Land (ERA5-Land) reanalysis dataset. Mann–Kendall (MK) trend analysis was used to conclude the climate change in the NEBS over the past 40 years. The climate differences under different altitude gradients and land cover were then analyzed. In addition, the predicted climate change in NEBS was presented with Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data. The results indicate a temperature rise across the entire NEBS, while a decrease in precipitation for 98% of this region. A significant effect of altitudinal difference was observed on temperature variation, while its influence on precipitation change was insignificant. The forest exhibited less significant altitude differences compared to croplands and grasslands. The CMIP6 data show that the NEBS would continue to warm but slightly humid. These results highlight the necessity to consider the climate differences under different altitudes and land cover for climate change study in NEBS.