Evaluation and projected changes in rainfall erosivity: Topography dependence revealed by Convection-Permitting climate projections for the Mediterranean island of Sicily

IF 5.4 1区农林科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Catena Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI:10.1016/j.catena.2025.108975

Eleonora Dallan , Vincenzo Bagarello , Vito Ferro , Vincenzo Pampalone , Marco Borga

{"title":"Evaluation and projected changes in rainfall erosivity: Topography dependence revealed by Convection-Permitting climate projections for the Mediterranean island of Sicily","authors":"Eleonora Dallan , Vincenzo Bagarello , Vito Ferro , Vincenzo Pampalone , Marco Borga","doi":"10.1016/j.catena.2025.108975","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent studies across Europe highlight the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries to rainfall-induced soil erosion. Climate change is intensifying the water cycle, leading to shifts in rainfall patterns and more frequent extreme precipitation events. Convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) outperform regional models in capturing intense sub-daily rainfall, providing more accurate projections of future extreme events. This study exploits a simplified rainfall erosivity model which uses 2-yr sub-daily rainfall quantiles as input to: investigate the ability of a CPM to provide reliable rainfall data for assessing rainfall erosivity; analyze the projected changes in rainfall quantiles and rainfall erosivity. The study is carried out in Sicily, which offers an ideal case study given its rainfall variability and complex topography. Data from 171 rain gauges are used to evaluate the CPM in simulating 2-year sub-daily rainfall quantiles and rainfall erosivity. Future changes are evaluated from the CPMs projections under the RCP8.5 scenario up to 2070.</div><div>The results show that model accuracy varies by rainfall duration and elevation, with greater underestimation of rainfall at shorter durations (up to −38 % on average at 1 h duration) and in coastal lowlands. Projections suggest an increase in intense rainfall, particularly for shorter durations, leading to higher rainfall erosivity (about + 20 % on average in the future). These findings underscore the need for bias adjustments in simulated rainfall data, considering both temporal scales and topographic influences. The study also highlights the potential for increased rainfall erosivity under climate warming, stressing the importance of developing soil conservation strategies and policies to address future challenges. This research set the stage for wider-area applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":9801,"journal":{"name":"Catena","volume":"254 ","pages":"Article 108975"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Catena","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0341816225002772","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Recent studies across Europe highlight the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries to rainfall-induced soil erosion. Climate change is intensifying the water cycle, leading to shifts in rainfall patterns and more frequent extreme precipitation events. Convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) outperform regional models in capturing intense sub-daily rainfall, providing more accurate projections of future extreme events. This study exploits a simplified rainfall erosivity model which uses 2-yr sub-daily rainfall quantiles as input to: investigate the ability of a CPM to provide reliable rainfall data for assessing rainfall erosivity; analyze the projected changes in rainfall quantiles and rainfall erosivity. The study is carried out in Sicily, which offers an ideal case study given its rainfall variability and complex topography. Data from 171 rain gauges are used to evaluate the CPM in simulating 2-year sub-daily rainfall quantiles and rainfall erosivity. Future changes are evaluated from the CPMs projections under the RCP8.5 scenario up to 2070.

The results show that model accuracy varies by rainfall duration and elevation, with greater underestimation of rainfall at shorter durations (up to −38 % on average at 1 h duration) and in coastal lowlands. Projections suggest an increase in intense rainfall, particularly for shorter durations, leading to higher rainfall erosivity (about + 20 % on average in the future). These findings underscore the need for bias adjustments in simulated rainfall data, considering both temporal scales and topographic influences. The study also highlights the potential for increased rainfall erosivity under climate warming, stressing the importance of developing soil conservation strategies and policies to address future challenges. This research set the stage for wider-area applications.

查看原文本刊更多论文

降雨侵蚀力的评估和预估变化：地中海西西里岛允许对流的气候预估揭示的地形依赖性

最近在欧洲各地进行的研究强调了地中海国家对降雨引起的土壤侵蚀的脆弱性。气候变化正在加剧水循环，导致降雨模式的变化和更频繁的极端降水事件。允许对流的气候模式（cpm）在捕获亚日强降雨方面优于区域模式，对未来极端事件提供更准确的预测。本研究利用一个简化的降雨侵蚀力模型，该模型使用2年次日降雨分位数作为输入：研究CPM为评估降雨侵蚀力提供可靠降雨数据的能力；分析降雨分位数和降雨侵蚀力的预估变化。这项研究是在西西里岛进行的，考虑到其降雨变化和复杂的地形，西西里岛提供了一个理想的案例研究。利用171个雨量计的资料，对CPM在模拟2年亚日雨量分位数和降雨侵蚀力方面进行了评估。未来的变化是根据RCP8.5情景下cpm预估得出的，直至2070年。结果表明，模式精度随降雨持续时间和海拔而变化，在较短的持续时间（1小时持续时间平均可达- 38%）和沿海低地，模式对降雨量的低估程度较大。预估表明，强降雨会增加，特别是持续时间较短的强降雨，导致更高的降雨侵蚀力（未来平均约为+ 20%）。这些发现强调了在考虑时间尺度和地形影响的情况下，对模拟降雨数据进行偏差调整的必要性。该研究还强调了气候变暖下降雨侵蚀力增加的可能性，强调了制定土壤保持战略和政策以应对未来挑战的重要性。这项研究为更广泛的应用奠定了基础。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Catena 环境科学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

10.50

自引率

9.70%

发文量

816

审稿时长

54 days

期刊介绍： Catena publishes papers describing original field and laboratory investigations and reviews on geoecology and landscape evolution with emphasis on interdisciplinary aspects of soil science, hydrology and geomorphology. It aims to disseminate new knowledge and foster better understanding of the physical environment, of evolutionary sequences that have resulted in past and current landscapes, and of the natural processes that are likely to determine the fate of our terrestrial environment. Papers within any one of the above topics are welcome provided they are of sufficiently wide interest and relevance.