The impact of the cost-of-living crisis on travel choices: The case of Scotland

Abstract

This study aims to identify the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on travel choices of Scottish residents. Specifically, we examine possible changes in two dimensions of travel behavior: (i) mode choice; and (ii) number of trips. Using recent data (N = 2705) from the Public Attitudes Survey (PAS) of Transport Scotland, extensive statistical modeling was conducted in order to identify which population segments are more likely to change their travel mode and reduce the number of trips they make in response to the ongoing crisis. To control for possible unobserved heterogeneity effects that may underpin these two behavioural dimensions, the Bivariate Ordered Probit (BOP) framework was employed enabling the joint modeling of these two dimensions. The survey data showed that 26.1% of the respondents changed their typical mode of travel as a means to save money, and almost 28% of the respondents have exhibited a propensity to reduce their number of trips due to rising travel costs. The results of the BOP model showed that low-income households and ethnic minorities are among the most severely affected population segments, as they are more likely to change their travel mode and reduce their amount of travel. Women, people with health issues or disabilities, millennials, and residents in rural areas of Scotland also show evidence of behavioral change in light of the cost-of-living crisis. The findings of this study highlight major inequalities in transport accessibility, which will continue to deepen and result in higher levels of transport poverty, as the cost-of-living crisis unfolds, and appropriate remedial measures are not taken by legislative and governmental Authorities.