Assessment of future water availability and seasonal patterns of dry seasons under climate change in Cidanau Watershed Banten Province, Indonesia

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102344

Septian Fauzi Dwi Saputra , Budi Indra Setiawan , Chusnul Arif , Satyanto Krido Saptomo , Atiqotun Fitriyah , Tasuku Kato

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

Cidanau Watershed, Banten Province, Indonesia, features a natural wetland (caldera) surrounded by mountains.

Study focus

The SWAT was employed to assess future hydrological changes in water availability and seasonal patterns of dry seasons in Cidanau watershed. The dry season was determined when the rate of cumulative evapotranspiration was higher than the rate of cumulative rainfall. Using 2002 – 2021 data as a baseline, future projections were evaluated for 2030 s, 2050 s, 2070 s, 2090 s. The SWAT model has been edited with wetland input parameters and calibrated with river channel and watershed parameters.

New hydrological insights

1) The SWAT model performance marginally improved after incorporating wetland input and river channel parameters in parameterization process; 2) Projected increase in mean Tmin & Tmax range from 0.5°C to 2.9°C, while mean annual rainfall is expected to decrease by −7 %– –10.3 % compare to the baseline periods; 3) As the result, the annual water yield is projected to decline by –11 % – –26 %, with the rainy season experiencing the most significant reduction; 4) The length of dry seasons is projected to increase, further impacting water availability; 5) Additionally, the frequency of extended dry seasons is expected to increase under future climate scenarios. This study highlights the anticipated decline in water availability and shifting dry season pattern, supporting decision-maker in developing adaptive and mitigation strategies for future climate challenges.

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气候变化下印尼万丹省Cidanau流域未来水资源可用量及旱季季节模式评估

研究区域印度尼西亚万丹省的cidanau流域，具有被山脉包围的天然湿地（火山口）。研究重点SWAT被用于评估未来在Cidanau流域的水可用性和旱季季节模式的水文变化。当累积蒸散速率大于累积降雨量速率时，确定了旱季。以2002 - 2021年的数据为基准，评估了2030年 s、2050年 s、2070年 s、2090年 s的未来预测。SWAT模型使用湿地输入参数进行编辑，并使用河道和流域参数进行校准。1)在参数化过程中加入湿地输入和河道参数后，SWAT模型的性能略有提高；2)预计平均Tmin &的增加；Tmax在0.5°C至2.9°C之间，而年平均降雨量预计将比基线期减少- 7 % ~ - 10.3 %；3)年出水量预计减少- 11 % ~ - 26 %，其中雨季减少幅度最大；4)预计旱季的长度将增加，进一步影响水的可用性；5)此外，在未来气候情景下，预计旱季延长的频率将增加。这项研究强调了可用水的预期下降和旱季模式的转变，为决策者制定应对未来气候挑战的适应和缓解战略提供了支持。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.