Impacts of abatement in anthropogenic emissions in the context of China’s carbon neutrality on global photovoltaic potential

Abstract

Anthropogenic emission reductions resulting from carbon neutrality and clean air policies in China, one of the world’s major emitters of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and aerosols, are likely to influence regional and global photovoltaic (PV) outputs by affecting climate change. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to assess quantitatively how China’s emission reductions toward carbon neutrality will influence the PV potential (PV_POT) and the extremely low PV outputs in the mid-21^st century (2041−2060). We find that the large reductions in anthropogenic emissions in the context of China’s carbon neutrality will increase the PV_POT and reduce the occurrence of extremely low PV outputs over some regions in the mid-low latitude continents, especially in East Asia, mainly through increasing the downwelling solar flux at the surface. Our results indicate that China’s carbon neutrality and clean air policies will not only trigger local positive feedback between anthropogenic emission reductions and PV increases but will also generate additional PV enhancements to remote regions, including eastern Australia, South Asia, southern Africa, and eastern South America. This will ultimately accelerate the process of global carbon neutrality in the coming decades.