Simulating Habitat Suitability Changes of Threadfin Porgy (Evynnis cardinalis) in the Northern South China Sea Using Ensemble Models Under Medium-to-Long-Term Future Climate Scenarios.

Abstract

The impact of global warming on fish distribution is a key factor in fishery management and sustainable development. However, limited knowledge exists regarding the influence of environmental factors on the distribution of Evynnis cardinalis under climate change. This study addresses this gap by predicting the species distribution under current conditions and three future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) using five individual models and four ensemble models. The results demonstrate that the ensemble models outperform the single models, with majority voting (EMca) achieving the highest accuracy (ROC = 0.97, TSS = 0.85). Bathymetry (BM) and the sea surface height (SSH) are the primary factors influencing the distribution. The predictions indicate that the currently suitable habitats of E. cardinalis are primarily located in the Beibu Gulf region of the northern South China Sea. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas are expected to expand to higher latitudes and deeper waters, though highly suitable habitats in the western Guangdong coastal waters, western Beibu Gulf, and southwestern offshore waters of Hainan Island will significantly decrease.