Exploring Climate-Driven Mismatches Between Pollinator-Dependent Crops and Honeybees in Asia.

Abstract

In Asia, Apis cerana (native) and Apis mellifera (introduced) are the primary managed honeybee species, vital for pollination and honey production. However, climate change and other threats are driving pollinator declines, while research on their ecology in Asia remains limited. Bridging these knowledge gaps is crucial for developing conservation strategies to sustain pollination services and agricultural systems in the region. In this study, we evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on the spatial interactions between two honeybee species (A. cerana and A. mellifera) and 20 pollinator-dependent crops across 23 countries in Asia. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to generate habitat suitability maps for both honeybees and crops under current and future climate scenarios (SSP585 for 2070). Schoener's D statistic was employed to quantify the spatial overlap, and a novel spatial approach was applied to create mismatch maps that identified areas of increased or decreased interactions. We found that, on average, A. cerana demonstrated higher overlap with 12 crops compared to 8 for A. mellifera in future projections. Key crops like sesame, eggplant, and mango retained strong overlaps with both pollinators, while mismatches were more pronounced for A. cerana, particularly with watermelon, strawberry, and buckwheat. In contrast, A. mellifera showed greater stability and resilience in spatial overlaps with crops such as soybean and sunflower. Overall, A. cerana is expected to face more significant spatial mismatches, highlighting its vulnerability to climate-induced changes and the critical need for targeted conservation efforts. This study highlights the urgent need for region-specific conservation strategies by identifying areas at risk of losing critical pollination services. Our results provide a crucial framework for informed management and policy interventions to safeguard pollination-dependent agricultural systems and biodiversity in Asia amidst accelerating environmental challenges.