Incidence and Risk Factors for Developing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus After Acute Myocardial Infarction-A Long-Term Follow-Up.

Abstract

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) share common risk factors. To evaluate the long-term incidence and predictors of new-onset T2DM (NODM) among post-AMI adults, we conducted a retrospective analysis of AMI survivors hospitalized between 2002 and 2017. Eligible patients were followed for up to 16 years to identify NODM, stratified by demographic and clinical characteristics. Among 5147 individuals (74.2% males, mean age 64.6 ± 14.9 years) without pre-existing T2DM, 23.4% developed NODM (cumulative incidence: 0.541). Key risk factors included an age of 50-60 years, a minority ethnicity (Arabs), smoking, metabolic syndrome (MetS), hemoglobin A1C (HbA1C) ≥ 5.7%, and cardiovascular comorbidities. A total score (TS), integrating these factors, revealed a linear association with the NODM risk: each 1-point increase corresponded to a 1.2-fold rise (95% CI 1.191-1.276, p < 0.001). HbA1C ≥ 6% on the "Pre-DM sub-scale" conferred a 2.8-fold risk (p < 0.001), while other risk factors also independently predicted NODM. In conclusion, post-AMI patients with multiple cardiovascular risk factors, particularly middle-aged individuals, Arab individuals, and those with HbA1C ≥ 6% or MetS, are at a heightened risk of NODM. Early identification and targeted interventions may mitigate this risk.