Investigation of the long-term interactions of nature's contributions to people under SDGs-SSPs scenarios to promote ecological sustainability in the arid and semiarid zones of China.

Abstract

Understanding the interactions among nature's contributions to people (NCPs) is considered an important way to manage ecosystem and reduce future ecological risks. However, few existing studies forecast the intricate interplay of trade-offs, synergies, and bundles among NCPs under future scenarios. This gap is particularly pronounced in the arid and semiarid zones of China (ASZC), which are highly vulnerable to climate change and human disturbances. To address this issue, this study focuses on the ASZC as the research area and employs an integrated research framework to clarify the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use, NCPs and their interactions under three Sustainable Development Goals and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SDGs-SSPs) scenarios between 2030 and 2060. The results indicate that: (1) forest area is projected to expand, and grassland area slightly decrease in future scenarios; (2) high-density forest and grassland in the southeastern part of the ASZC have significantly increased the provision of NCPs; (3) trade-off between NCPs is primarily observed between the regulation of water quantity, location and timing (NCP6) and the formation, protection and decontamination of soils and sediments (NCP8). Furthermore, NCP bundles that were previously dominated by habitat creation and maintenance (NCP1)-regulation of climate (NCP4)-NCP6 have shifted to NCP1-NCP4 in and NCP1-NCP8 bundles across different SDGs-SSPs scenarios. This study enhances our understanding of future NCPs dynamics and suggests that the interactions and bundles of NCPs is essential for improving ecosystem management.