Vaccination and Collective Action Under Social Norms.

IF 2 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY
Bryce Morsky
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Abstract

Social dynamics are an integral part of the spread of disease affecting contact rates as well as the adoption of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions. When vaccines provide waning immunity, efficient and timely uptake of boosters is required to maintain protection and reduce infections. How then do social dynamics affect the timely uptake of vaccines and thereby the course of an epidemic? This paper explores this scenario through a behavioural-epidemiological model. It features a tipping-point dynamic for the uptake of vaccines that combines the risk of infection, perceived morbidity risk of the vaccine, and social payoffs for deviating from the vaccination decision-making of others. The social payoffs are derived from a social norm of conformity, and they create a collective action problem. A key finding driven by this dilemma is that waves of vaccine uptake and infections can occur due to inefficient and delayed uptake of boosters. This results in a nonlinear response of the infection load to the transmission rate: an intermediate transmission rate can result in greater prevalence of disease relative to more or less transmissible diseases. Further, global information about the prevalence of the disease and vaccine uptake can increase the infection load and peak relative to information restricted to individuals' contact networks. Thus, decisions driven by local information can mitigate the collective action problem across the population. Finally, the optimal public policy program to promote boosters is shown to be one that focuses on overcoming the social inertia to vaccinate at the start of an epidemic.

社会规范下的疫苗接种和集体行动。
社会动态是影响接触率以及采取药物和非药物干预措施的疾病传播的一个组成部分。当疫苗提供的免疫力减弱时,需要有效和及时地吸收增强剂,以维持保护并减少感染。那么,社会动态如何影响疫苗的及时接种,从而影响流行病的进程呢?本文通过行为流行病学模型探讨了这种情况。它具有接种疫苗的临界点动态,结合了感染风险、疫苗的感知发病风险和偏离他人疫苗接种决策的社会回报。社会回报来自社会规范的一致性,它们创造了一个集体行动的问题。这一困境带来的一个关键发现是,由于接种增强剂的效率低下和延迟,可能出现疫苗接种和感染的浪潮。这就导致了感染负荷对传播率的非线性反应:相对于传染性较强或较弱的疾病,中等传播率可能导致更大的疾病流行。此外,与仅限于个人接触网络的信息相比,有关疾病流行和疫苗接种的全球信息可增加感染负荷并达到峰值。因此,由本地信息驱动的决策可以缓解整个人口的集体行动问题。最后,推广助推器的最佳公共政策方案被证明是侧重于克服在流行病开始时接种疫苗的社会惯性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
8.60%
发文量
123
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, the official journal of the Society for Mathematical Biology, disseminates original research findings and other information relevant to the interface of biology and the mathematical sciences. Contributions should have relevance to both fields. In order to accommodate the broad scope of new developments, the journal accepts a variety of contributions, including: Original research articles focused on new biological insights gained with the help of tools from the mathematical sciences or new mathematical tools and methods with demonstrated applicability to biological investigations Research in mathematical biology education Reviews Commentaries Perspectives, and contributions that discuss issues important to the profession All contributions are peer-reviewed.
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