Trends and cross-country inequalities in the global, regional, and national burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer from 1990 to 2021, along with the predictions for 2035

IF 2.4 3区医学 Q3 ONCOLOGY

Cancer Epidemiology Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI:10.1016/j.canep.2025.102802

Wen Bao , Lichun Qiao , Miaoqian Li , Guoming Shi , Liang Liu

{"title":"Trends and cross-country inequalities in the global, regional, and national burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer from 1990 to 2021, along with the predictions for 2035","authors":"Wen Bao , Lichun Qiao , Miaoqian Li , Guoming Shi , Liang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.canep.2025.102802","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>The global burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) is on the rise.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of GBTC from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was also employed to project disease trends for the next 15 years.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>In 2021, new GBTC cases observed globally amounted to 216,768, with 171,961 mortality and 3732,121 DALYs. From 1990–2021, a notable surge was recorded in the incidence of GBTC by 101 %, mortality by 74.26 %, and DALYs by 60.45 %. Regions with superior Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) reflected elevated incidence and mortality rates. However, a significant decrease was noticed in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Despite a reduction in health disparities among countries, differences remain. Prognostications predict a continual decline in global ASIR and ASMR through 2035.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The study found that the burden of GBTC in incidences, mortalities, and DALYs has been on the rise, with some correlation with socio-economic development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56322,"journal":{"name":"Cancer Epidemiology","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102802"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cancer Epidemiology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877782125000621","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

The global burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) is on the rise.

Methods

The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of GBTC from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was also employed to project disease trends for the next 15 years.

Results

In 2021, new GBTC cases observed globally amounted to 216,768, with 171,961 mortality and 3732,121 DALYs. From 1990–2021, a notable surge was recorded in the incidence of GBTC by 101 %, mortality by 74.26 %, and DALYs by 60.45 %. Regions with superior Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) reflected elevated incidence and mortality rates. However, a significant decrease was noticed in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Despite a reduction in health disparities among countries, differences remain. Prognostications predict a continual decline in global ASIR and ASMR through 2035.

Conclusions

The study found that the burden of GBTC in incidences, mortalities, and DALYs has been on the rise, with some correlation with socio-economic development.

查看原文本刊更多论文

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Cancer Epidemiology 医学-肿瘤学

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

3.80%

发文量

200

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Cancer Epidemiology is dedicated to increasing understanding about cancer causes, prevention and control. The scope of the journal embraces all aspects of cancer epidemiology including: • Descriptive epidemiology • Studies of risk factors for disease initiation, development and prognosis • Screening and early detection • Prevention and control • Methodological issues The journal publishes original research articles (full length and short reports), systematic reviews and meta-analyses, editorials, commentaries and letters to the editor commenting on previously published research.