Presenting the urban physical construction development model using fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making and CA-Markov supported by remote sensing techniques

Abstract

An effective approach to the scientific and practical management of urban construction and planning involves predicting future city construction scenarios. This strategy balances spatial allocation while considering various legal, economic, and environmental factors. Among the various products of remote sensing, satellite images have emerged as the most widely used and effective tools for evaluating both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of urban development in recent years. The data extracted from satellite images not only reveals historical changes in land use types but also serves as an essential input for predictive models concerning future urban physical development. In this research, Landsat satellite images from the periods of 1997–2007 and 2007–2017 were analyzed for Sari County. By incorporating key parameters influencing urban construction changes, a combination of fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making and CA-Markov models was proposed to simulate the physical construction development process for 2027. Following the validation of the 2017 prediction map, the developed 2027 map was simulated within the research environment. The estimated change maps and stability maps generated by the proposed model indicate that from 2017 to 2027, new areas will be under construction, which previously served other purposes, primarily agricultural and barren. To maintain sustainability, built development must be designed to preserve existing environmental resources while meeting economic and social needs, ensuring that growth is balanced and resilient for the future. Also, maintaining dynamism will be achieved through sustainable construction and development practices that support long-term resilience.