Impact of Temperature Variability on the Caputo Fractional Malaria Model

Abstract

Malaria is one of the most common illnesses in the world. This paper aims to analyze the age-related characteristics of malaria in human hosts by exploring Caputo fractional-order models with temperature variability. The model is well-posed both mathematically and epidemiologically. According to the model, the likelihood of disease transmission and the rate of mosquito contact are important determinants of the disease's spread. The model's stability and steady states are investigated. To determine the fundamental reproduction number, the next-generation method is used. The endemic equilibrium is shown to be locally and globally asymptotically stable under the conditions for the stability of the equilibrium points, whenever the basic reproduction number is bigger than unity. The study examined the combined effects of fractional order and temperature variability on malaria dynamics. Nevertheless, we demonstrated that the endemic equilibrium point is unique. MATLAB was used to simulate Caputo fractional order with and without temperature variability and to apply the Adams–Bashforth–Moulton numerical approach. The model suggests that, in addition to any other strategy that lowers the incidence of malaria infection, efforts should be made to decrease mosquito populations and contact rates using chemical or biological therapies.