Changes in Compound Extreme Events and Their Impacts on Cropland Productivity in China, 1985–2019

Abstract

While the influence of compound extreme events is gaining attention with advancing extreme climate research, the variations in their impacts on regional crop production require further exploration. Here, we primarily analyze the changes in compound hot-dry events and compound hot-wet events in China from 1985 to 2019, based on meteorological observations from 686 stations. Then, their contributions to losses in cropland net primary productivity (CNPP) are identified using the extreme gradient boosting and Shapley additive explanations models. Results indicate that compound extreme events have become increasingly frequent, persistent, and severe over the past 35 years. With the increasing risks of compound extreme events, greater CNPP losses are observed in the northern regions compared to the southern regions. Throughout the growing season, CNPP losses caused by compound extreme events initially increase, peak in summer, and then gradually decrease. CNPP losses in China are primarily influenced by compound hot-dry events. From north to south, the events dominating CNPP losses shift sequentially from compound daytime hot and dry events to compound day-night hot and dry events, and finally to compound nighttime hot and dry events. This study explores the threats posed by compound extreme events to regional crop production and provides new insights into extreme climate risks in China, supporting climate-adaptive agricultural development.