{"title":"Estimates of Methane Release from the Arctic Seas under Possible Climate Changes during the 21st Century","authors":"V. V. Malakhova, E. N. Golubeva","doi":"10.1134/S1024856024701495","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>To study the impact of future climate change on the methane emissions to the atmosphere as a result of the Arctic submarine permafrost degradation, scenario experiments were carried up to 2100 out using the SibCIOM ocean and sea ice model. For the atmospheric forcing, we used the results of six climate model simulations from the RCP8.5 scenario of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 archive. Based on the numerical results, it is found that the total annual methane fluxes will increase by a factor of 2–4 depending on the atmospheric forcing by 2100 compared to current levels. The flux intensity calculated in the numerical experiments does not exceed 8 Tg/yr. High future methane emissions are mainly due to reduced ice extent and increased ice-free periods. This resulted in a shift in the timing of maximal methane emissions from summer to fall and winter.</p>","PeriodicalId":46751,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Optics","volume":"37 1 supplement","pages":"S153 - S161"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Optics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S1024856024701495","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"OPTICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
To study the impact of future climate change on the methane emissions to the atmosphere as a result of the Arctic submarine permafrost degradation, scenario experiments were carried up to 2100 out using the SibCIOM ocean and sea ice model. For the atmospheric forcing, we used the results of six climate model simulations from the RCP8.5 scenario of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 archive. Based on the numerical results, it is found that the total annual methane fluxes will increase by a factor of 2–4 depending on the atmospheric forcing by 2100 compared to current levels. The flux intensity calculated in the numerical experiments does not exceed 8 Tg/yr. High future methane emissions are mainly due to reduced ice extent and increased ice-free periods. This resulted in a shift in the timing of maximal methane emissions from summer to fall and winter.
期刊介绍：
Atmospheric and Oceanic Optics is an international peer reviewed journal that presents experimental and theoretical articles relevant to a wide range of problems of atmospheric and oceanic optics, ecology, and climate. The journal coverage includes: scattering and transfer of optical waves, spectroscopy of atmospheric gases, turbulent and nonlinear optical phenomena, adaptive optics, remote (ground-based, airborne, and spaceborne) sensing of the atmosphere and the surface, methods for solving of inverse problems, new equipment for optical investigations, development of computer programs and databases for optical studies. Thematic issues are devoted to the studies of atmospheric ozone, adaptive, nonlinear, and coherent optics, regional climate and environmental monitoring, and other subjects.
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