Global, regional, and national burden of elderly myocarditis (1992–2021) and projections of future disease burden trends

IF 3.4 3区 医学 Q2 GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY
Weichun Wang, Xiaofeng Chen
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Abstract

Objective

Geriatric myocarditis represents a significant public health concern, directly influencing overall health and potentially leading to various cardiac diseases. This study seeks to quantify the burden of geriatric myocarditis over three decades (1992–2021) and provide forecasts for future disease burden.

Methods

Data on geriatric myocarditis from 1992 to 2021 was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study, offering insights into the incidence of the condition, categorized by gender. The Joinpoint regression model was utilized to identify shifts in epidemiological trends, while decomposition analysis helped identify the underlying factors contributing to these trends. To project future incidence, deaths and DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years), the Norpred and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) models were employed.

Results

In 2021, the global ASIR (per 100,000) of elderly myocarditis was 47.57 (27.52–73.08), with 505,147 (292,319–774,561) cases. Age-standardized deaths(per 100,000) were 2.07 (1.55–2.51), totaling 20,718 (15,525–25,085) deaths, and age-standardized DALYs(per 100,000) were 29.77 (22.60–35.81), with 308,101 (234,226–370,674) DALYs. Greenland, Canada, and Austria had the highest ASIR(per 100,000), while Romania, Kazakhstan, and Croatia had the highest age-standardized deaths(per 100,000), and Romania, Kazakhstan, and Guyana had the highest age-standardized DALYs(per 100,000). Joinpoint Regression analysis revealed a recent upward trend in global incidence after a previous decline, consistent across genders and SDI regions. Deaths and DALYs showed declining trends globally, though male deaths recently increased. Decomposition analysis identified population growth and aging as key drivers of increased cases, deaths, and DALYs. Based on the nordpred model, by 2045, the global ASIR(per 100,000) is predicted to be 47.27, with 1,005,593 cases, age-standardized deaths(per 100,000) of 2.02, totaling 48,501 deaths, and age-standardized DALYs(per 100,000) of 26.21, with 595,694 DALYs. The BAPC model predicts a global ASIR(per 100,000) of 51.82, with 1,091,195 cases, age-standardized deaths(per 100,000) of 3.67, totaling 87,145 deaths, and age-standardized DALYs(per 100,000) of 49.09, with 1,084,738 DALYs.

Conclusion

As of 2021, the ASIR(per 100,000) of myocarditis in the elderly population showed a decline compared to 1992; however, a recent upward trend has been identified. Considering ongoing population growth, the number of myocarditis cases among the elderly is anticipated to increase.

全球、地区和国家老年心肌炎负担(1992-2021)和未来疾病负担趋势预测
老年心肌炎是一个重大的公共卫生问题,直接影响整体健康,并可能导致各种心脏疾病。本研究旨在量化三十年(1992-2021)的老年心肌炎负担,并预测未来的疾病负担。方法从全球疾病负担研究中获得1992年至2021年的老年心肌炎数据,提供了按性别分类的疾病发病率的见解。利用Joinpoint回归模型确定流行病学趋势的变化,而分解分析有助于确定导致这些趋势的潜在因素。为了预测未来的发病率、死亡率和残疾调整生命年(DALYs),采用了Norpred和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型。结果2021年,全球老年心肌炎ASIR(每10万人)为47.57(27.52-73.08)例,505,147(292,319-774,561)例。年龄标准化死亡(每10万人)为2.07人(1.55-2.51人),死亡总数为20,718人(15,525-25,085人);年龄标准化DALYs(每10万人)为29.77人(22.60-35.81人),DALYs为308,101人(234,226-370,674人)。格陵兰、加拿大和奥地利的ASIR最高(每10万人),而罗马尼亚、哈萨克斯坦和克罗地亚的年龄标准化死亡率最高(每10万人),罗马尼亚、哈萨克斯坦和圭亚那的年龄标准化DALYs最高(每10万人)。联合点回归分析显示,在之前的下降之后,最近全球发病率呈上升趋势,这在性别和SDI地区是一致的。死亡和伤残调整生命年在全球呈下降趋势,但男性死亡最近有所增加。分解分析确定人口增长和老龄化是病例、死亡和伤残调整生命年增加的主要驱动因素。根据nordpred模型,到2045年,全球ASIR(每100,000例)预计为47.27例,有1,005,593例,年龄标准化死亡(每100,000例)为2.02例,总计48,501例死亡,年龄标准化DALYs(每100,000例)为26.21例,有595,694例DALYs。BAPC模型预测全球ASIR(每10万人)为51.82,有1,091,195例,年龄标准化死亡(每10万人)为3.67,共有87,145例死亡,年龄标准化DALYs(每10万人)为49.09,有1,084,738例DALYs。结论截至2021年,老年人群心肌炎ASIR(每10万人)较1992年有所下降;然而,最近的上升趋势已经确定。考虑到持续的人口增长,老年人心肌炎病例的数量预计会增加。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.90
自引率
5.00%
发文量
283
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: Aging clinical and experimental research offers a multidisciplinary forum on the progressing field of gerontology and geriatrics. The areas covered by the journal include: biogerontology, neurosciences, epidemiology, clinical gerontology and geriatric assessment, social, economical and behavioral gerontology. “Aging clinical and experimental research” appears bimonthly and publishes review articles, original papers and case reports.
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