Towards managing vulnerability. A new model of systemic vulnerability

Abstract

Systemic vulnerability represents an underexplored topic in Disaster Risk Reduction, closely linked to vulnerability dynamics. This study is the first to acquire an in-depth understanding of systemic vulnerability within multi-hazard contexts. We introduce a Systemic Vulnerability Model that builds on our prior conceptual framework of vulnerability augmentation and on Enhanced Impact Chains on vulnerability. The model integrates in-depth structural equations and multiple regressions, validated through three robust procedures. Key results show that vulnerabilities that generate numerous affects, slows down, or sharpens connections are also heavily augmented by hazard impacts. Based on these findings, we define systemic vulnerability as the enduring core of vulnerability that persists across time and space, irrespective of mitigation efforts and societal progress. Systemic vulnerability reinforces impacts by evolving into drivers of vulnerability and impacts, also hindering mitigation measures. This perspective adds to research on vulnerability to natural hazards, supporting the development of multi-risk management considering vulnerability dynamics.