The mortality and associated economic burden of London's summer urban heat island effect: a modelling study

IF 24.1 1区医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI:10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00025-7

Charles H Simpson DPhil , Oscar Brousse PhD , Tim Taylor PhD , Ai Milojevic PhD , James Grellier PhD , Jonathon Taylor PhD , Prof Lora E Fleming MD PhD , Prof Michael Davies PhD , Clare Heaviside PhD

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

High ambient temperatures lead to increased mortality, especially in older adults. Climate change will increase the frequency and severity of heatwaves globally. Most of the UK population lives in urban areas, which often have higher temperatures than rural areas (the urban heat island [UHI] effect) and higher rates of heat-related mortality. We estimated the mortality burden in terms of attributable mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), and social costs attributed to the UHI effect in summer 2018 in Greater London.

Methods

We estimated the UHI effect using advanced urban climate modelling. We applied a quantitative health impact assessment to estimate mortality and YLLs attributable to high air temperature. We estimated social costs using value of statistical life (VSL) and value of statistical life-years (VOLY) methods.

Findings

We attribute 785 (95% CI 655–919) deaths in summer 2018 in Greater London to high air temperature. Half of these (399 [350–446]) are attributable to the UHI effect, or approximately 5·0 (4·1–5·9) thousand YLLs. Social costs of the summer UHI effect due to mortality are estimated at £987 million (866 million–1·10 billion) using VSL or £453 million (367–533 million) using VOLY (2023 prices).

Interpretation

Monetised costs attributed to the UHI effect remain high using either VSL or VOLY approaches. The findings demonstrate the seriousness of heat as a public health risk, set a scale at which society may be willing to pay for urban heat mitigation, and give tangible support for large-scale urban heat mitigation and adaptation policies.

Funding

Wellcome Trust.

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来源期刊

Lancet Planetary Health Multiple-

CiteScore

28.40

自引率

2.30%

发文量

272

审稿时长

8 weeks

期刊介绍： The Lancet Planetary Health is a gold Open Access journal dedicated to investigating and addressing the multifaceted determinants of healthy human civilizations and their impact on natural systems. Positioned as a key player in sustainable development, the journal covers a broad, interdisciplinary scope, encompassing areas such as poverty, nutrition, gender equity, water and sanitation, energy, economic growth, industrialization, inequality, urbanization, human consumption and production, climate change, ocean health, land use, peace, and justice. With a commitment to publishing high-quality research, comment, and correspondence, it aims to be the leading journal for sustainable development in the face of unprecedented dangers and threats.