Incentive policy formulation for China's electric vehicle market: Navigating pathways to sustainable mobility with a green premium analytical model

IF 9.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114610

Hang Fan , Zhi Li , Yunjie Duan , Boyu Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Accurate electric vehicle (EV) sales forecasting is essential for effective policy-making and sustainable industry growth. Existing approaches frequently overlook the green premium - the cost differential between conventional and zero-emission technologies - in EV adoption analyses. Thus, the objective of this research was to model the green premium in the green transition process of battery electric vehicle (BEV) and to guide the formulation of incentive policies to promote industry development. We use an improved Bass diffusion model and genetic algorithms to predict the market penetration rate of BEVs under different green premium scenarios, and we provide policy recommendations based on data from China's electric vehicle market. Our findings show that the market penetration rate of BEVs is highly sensitive to the green premium. Incentive policy subsidies and technological innovation are the main factors affecting the green premium of BEVs. Dual-credit policies and license plate restrictions increase the market penetration rate of BEVs by reducing their production and usage costs. Technological innovations, such as advancements in battery technology and improvements in intelligence levels, fundamentally reduce production costs and increase product premiums, which are key to the market entry and sustainable development of BEVs.

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来源期刊

Energy Policy 管理科学-环境科学

CiteScore

17.30

自引率

5.60%

发文量

540

审稿时长

7.9 months

期刊介绍： Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy conversion, distribution and use as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to contribute to climate change mitigation. The attributes of energy policy may include legislation, international treaties, incentives to investment, guidelines for energy conservation, taxation and other public policy techniques. Energy policy is closely related to climate change policy because totalled worldwide the energy sector emits more greenhouse gas than other sectors.