The constraining dynamics of political instability on renewable energy development: International evidence

IF 9 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Renewable Energy Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI:10.1016/j.renene.2025.122889

Xinpeng Huang , Huwei Wen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The transition from fossil fuel dependence to renewable energy systems constitutes a critical challenge for global carbon neutrality, yet this process faces fundamental uncertainties arising from political instability. This study systematically examines how political instability structurally constrains renewable energy development: dynamic evolutionary patterns, nonlinear marginal effects, and institutional transmission mechanisms. Using panel data from 108 countries from 2003–2020, this paper investigates the dynamic evolution of renewable energy development and empirically tests the impact of political instability on renewable energy development. The robustness test confirmed the above conclusion through the instrumental variable method. The results show that political instability inhibits renewable energy development. Renewable energy development demonstrates phase-specific vulnerability, being most sensitive to political risk during its embryonic and growth stages. Further research shows that the marginal effect of political instability on renewable energy development first increases and then decreases. Mechanistic analysis reveals that political instability affects renewable energy development by influencing the effectiveness and stability of policy and market systems. These insights yield operational policy suggestions that implement stage-differentiated regulatory frameworks, establish cross-administration renewable policy continuity mechanisms, and design political risk hedging instruments tailored to development phases.

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从依赖化石燃料过渡到可再生能源系统是实现全球碳中和的关键挑战，但这一过程面临着政治不稳定带来的根本不确定性。本研究系统地探讨了政治不稳定性如何从结构上制约可再生能源的发展：动态演化模式、非线性边际效应和制度传导机制。本文利用 2003-2020 年 108 个国家的面板数据，研究了可再生能源发展的动态演化，并实证检验了政治不稳定对可再生能源发展的影响。通过工具变量法进行稳健性检验，证实了上述结论。结果表明，政治不稳定抑制了可再生能源的发展。可再生能源发展表现出特定阶段的脆弱性，在其萌芽和成长阶段对政治风险最为敏感。进一步的研究表明，政治不稳定性对可再生能源发展的边际效应先增大后减小。机制分析表明，政治不稳定性通过影响政策和市场体系的有效性和稳定性来影响可再生能源的发展。这些见解产生了可操作的政策建议，即实施阶段性差异监管框架，建立跨行政部门的可再生能源政策连续性机制，以及设计适合发展阶段的政治风险对冲工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Renewable Energy 工程技术-能源与燃料

CiteScore

18.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

1955

审稿时长

6.6 months

期刊介绍： Renewable Energy journal is dedicated to advancing knowledge and disseminating insights on various topics and technologies within renewable energy systems and components. Our mission is to support researchers, engineers, economists, manufacturers, NGOs, associations, and societies in staying updated on new developments in their respective fields and applying alternative energy solutions to current practices. As an international, multidisciplinary journal in renewable energy engineering and research, we strive to be a premier peer-reviewed platform and a trusted source of original research and reviews in the field of renewable energy. Join us in our endeavor to drive innovation and progress in sustainable energy solutions.